Emission Projections of Air Pollutants 2025

Air pollution is harmful to human health and the environment. Every two years, the PBL maps the expected emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx), ammonia, particulate matter (PM2.5), sulfur dioxide, and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). This projection is mandatory under the European NEC directive. The report shows that it is highly likely that the Netherlands will meet the European NEC emission targets for 2030.

Ammonia Emissions from Agriculture Decline More Than Previously Estimated

The ammonia emissions in agriculture are expected to decrease due to the abolition of the derogation allowing the Netherlands to spread more animal manure, termination schemes for livestock farms, and more low-emission stables. The new ammonia projection for 2030 is 15 kilotons (or 15 percent) lower than the previous estimate. Roughly half of this is due to the abolition of derogation.

Nitrogen Deposition Targets in Environmental Law Far Out of Reach

According to the Environmental Law, by 2035, nitrogen deposition in 74 percent of nitrogen-sensitive Natura 2000 areas must be below the critical deposition value (KDW), with an interim target of 50 percent by 2030. A recent calculation by RIVM suggests that ammonia emissions from agriculture in 2035 need to be 70 to 80 percent lower than the ERL 2023 projection for 2035 to achieve the Environmental Law target, assuming no additional emission reduction in other sectors beyond the projection. To meet the interim target for 2030, a reduction of 55 to 65 percent compared to the ERL 2023 projection for that year is needed. With a 15 percent reduction compared to the ERL 2023 projected for both 2030 and 2035, the targets for nitrogen deposition are far out of reach.

Attention Needed for Inland Shipping in the Clean Air Agreement

The Clean Air Agreement (SLA) is an agreement between the government, provinces, and municipalities. The main goal is to achieve at least 50 percent health benefits by 2030 compared to 2016 through improved air quality. To achieve this main goal, sectoral targets for emission reductions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter have also been agreed upon. The new projection indicates that it is unlikely that the sub-target for inland shipping—a 35 percent emission reduction for nitrogen oxides by 2035 compared to 2015—will be met.