The Netherlands aims to be climate-neutral by 2050. In this paper for the Colloquium Transport Planning Research 2024, we demonstrate that steps have been taken in recent years towards a climate-neutral mobility system. At the same time, challenges remain in technology and behavior.
Paths to Climate-Neutral Mobility in 2050
Climate neutrality in 2050 requires a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, including in mobility. But what do paths to climate-neutral mobility look like? And are we already on the right track? Where are the challenges? In this paper, we outline paths to climate-neutral mobility in 2050 using backcasting. We then confront these paths with current expectations regarding the development of greenhouse gas emissions from mobility.
Electrification of Road Traffic, Sustainable Fuels for Aviation and Shipping
Sustainable technology plays a crucial role in the transition to climate-neutral mobility. For road traffic, this is battery-electric propulsion, with a possible role for hydrogen in heavy-duty transport. Current trends and policies lead to rapid growth until 2040, roughly in line with the path to climate neutrality. In aviation and shipping, renewable fuels are central to the transition. Growth in supply is crucial. In shipping, a wide range of sustainable technologies and fuels are being developed, and practical experiences are needed. Current policies already enforce a certain degree of sustainability, but the path to climate neutrality is not yet in sight.
Significant Steps Towards Climate-Neutral Mobility, but Also Major Challenges
The confrontation between current trends and paths to climate neutrality shows that significant steps are being taken towards a more sustainable mobility system. The rollout of sustainable technology in road traffic is already in a phase of acceleration, and we expect accelerated sustainability in aviation and shipping in the coming years. At the same time, major challenges remain regarding the rollout of technology. Behavioral change can also play a significant role in the path to zero. Through spatial policy, pricing policy, and infrastructure policy, more sustainable travel behavior can be encouraged, which increases the chances of success for climate neutrality by 2050.
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