Your Excellencies,
Secretary General –
Dear Mark,
Your speech last month at Carnegie Europe was impressive. A historic speech with the right urgency. You said: “We need to turbocharge our defense production and defense spending”. I completely agree.
I speak also about the need for a Big Bang approach to European defense.
You rightly pointed out the urgent need to increase our defense spending. You said: “If we dont do that, we are safe now, but not in four or five years. So, if you dont do it, get your Russian language courses or go to New Zealand, or decide now to spend more”. A powerful message that explains everything.
When I was in school, I was forced by the Soviets to learn the Russian language. I dont want that for my grandchildren.
And I want to continue living in Europe, despite the allure of beautiful New Zealand.
We need to increase our overall defense readiness. A stronger European defense is crucial. A stronger EU defense industry will strengthen NATO defense.
Before going into more details about our plans, I want to explain my basic thoughts on European defense.
Dear Mark, I know that at university you studied history. Despite studying physics, I too find my inspiration in the past.
Over Christmas, I read the memoirs of Jean Monnet. We all know Jean Monnet as one of the founding fathers of the European Union. But he was also one of the founding fathers of victory in World War II.
Jean Monnet first described the United States as the Arsenal of Democracy. He worked with Winston Churchill and President Roosevelt.
He helped the Roosevelt administration prepare the so-called Victory Plan, crucial for the victory of the allies.
While reading Monnets memoirs, much sounded familiar: the lack of urgency at the beginning, low reserves of manpower and weapons, low productivity. Concerns about budgets were also familiar.
But also a clear understanding of what needed to be done, shared by Monnet and expressed by Roosevelt.
Roosevelt said: “There is absolutely no doubt in the mind of a very overwhelming number of Americans that the best immediate defense of the United States is the success of Great Britain defending itself”.
The same is needed now when we are discussing our support to Ukraine.
Monnet also understood how important it was to show the real truth about the gap in US readiness:
In his memoirs, he said: “The first step was to calculate the deficit... We presented it in the starkest terms, knowing that the American Administration needed a shock and that Roosevelt was only waiting to be spurred by big demands”.
And finally, - when the nation is facing an existential threat, money cannot become an obstacle for defense.
Monnet was delighted to hear Roosevelt condemn taboos that Monnet had been attacking for years.
To quote Roosevelt: “In all history, no major war has been lost through lack of money...”
We too now face a potential existential challenge. And we too need our Victory Plan. Together with Ukraine.
We should have no doubt about Russias war aims. If you listen to Putin and his propagandists, war aims go well beyond Ukraine. They include annexation and occupation of parts of Europe. And domination of the rest.
We are facing not only an aggressive Russia. North Korea, Iran are in the same axis of aggressive authoritarians. China is not far away.
We are already under threat. Disinformation. Weaponization of migrants. Repeated attacks on cables in the Baltic. Sabotage. Arson. Espionage. Murder. The attacks are increasing in intensity and severity.
If we do not act, these hybrid attacks could soon be followed by military attacks.
Dear Mark, as you have convincingly stated - in five years, Russia will have the military means for a confrontation with NATO.
We can still deter Russian aggression in Europe. First, by supporting Ukraine. And by supporting the integration of EU and Ukrainian defense industries.
Defending Ukraine means defending Europe. Every missile, every drone shot down by Ukraine, is one that will not threaten Europe, one that will not threaten NATO.
Every day Ukraine stands fast is a day of delay. A day Putin cannot turn his full might against us.
Every day Ukraine fights on, is a day the European Union and NATO can grow stronger.
We can prevent Russian aggression if we are strong. Now we are not strong enough. The gaps in defense capability are very, very serious. The shortfalls in military material, compared with the Russian war economy, are colossal.
It is for NATO to make military plans. It is for NATO and Member States to assess military needs and set targets. And 23 of them do so here at NATO.
And the European Union will support. We can bring our added value. By mobilizing our budget and industrial and regulatory power.
We are now preparing a White Paper on the Future of European Defense. We want the EU to help our Member States to enhance their defense readiness.
This means helping members of the EU to fulfill NATO capability targets. Not in twenty years time as planned, in 2044. But in the next five years, by 2030.
And thats why I thank you for releasing NATO standards to the EU institutions. I thank all of you. Thank you for the trust. I know for you this was an unprecedented step.
Thank you for the commitment to our common cause. But this is just a beginning. I count on much more intense cooperation with NATO. We need to accelerate our cooperation. And find pragmatic ways to increase information sharing. Including the aggregated numbers of NATO capability targets. To have an industrial Victory Plan.
Only this will help us to better support NATO and support your mission.
I want a Big Bang approach in defense production and acquisition. Because we can no longer afford to go forward in very small, incremental steps.
We need European scale, European coordination, and European funding. We need joint investment in defense. We need joint procurement for aggregated European demand. We need more industrial cooperation, starting with Research and Development. We need more production capacity right here in Europe to fill capability gaps.
Member States will remain in charge of deciding which capabilities they develop and acquire. What the EU will do is help them develop and acquire such capabilities faster, cheaper, and more together.
In closing, let me return to Jean Monnet. There are also big differences between Jean Monnet and ourselves. When Jean Monnet helped to mobilize United States industry for victory, war had already broken out. His own country had already been overrun. Europe had been overrun.
Unlike Monnet, we still have some time to prevent a major conflict. And another big difference: We have the European Union. We have NATO. The European Union is the biggest single market in the world. And NATO is the largest defensive military alliance in the world. We want to make the EU-NATO partnership even stronger. The European Union can also become an arsenal for democracy. The EU economy is many times larger than the Russian economy. Together we can outspend, outproduce, and outgun Russia. This way, we can deter aggression and prevent war.
Thank you, and I look forward to the discussion.