Today marks the last day of biting easterly winds, cold, and a snow cover in the north of the country. And then, in the coming days, will we leap into spring? The maximum temperature in De Bilt is expected to reach around 16 degrees on Friday, a jump of no less than 13 degrees in three days. How rare is such a jump actually?
The Wind is Shifting
The late winter is a season in which the temperature can change surprisingly quickly. In both directions, actually, both up and down. Partly because the days are already significantly longer than in December and the sun is higher in the sky, a shift of the wind from east to south can cause the temperature to rise significantly. We will see this happen in the coming days.
The Magnitude of 3-Day Temperature Jumps
We calculate the change in maximum temperature in De Bilt over three days for all days since 1961. In figure 1, you can see that on average over the entire period, the size of the jumps depends on the time of year. The average size varies from about 2.5 degrees in October to 4 degrees in May. But there are large outliers around that. The largest outlier occurred between December 28 and 31, 1978. On December 28, the mercury still reached 10.6 degrees, but three days later, it was still freezing during the day at -9.5 degrees, a staggering 20.1 degrees lower.