Ammonia emissions from agriculture are projected to be 19% lower in 2030 than in 2022. This is due to forecasts by Wageningen University & Research (WUR) for the Climate and Energy Outlook 2024. The decrease is mainly due to the loss of derogation and farm closure measures as part of the nitrogen policy.
This note provides an explanation of the projected ammonia emissions from agriculture for the years 2030 and 2035. These estimates were prepared by WUR and are used for the Climate and Energy Outlook 2024 (KEV) and the Emission Estimates for Air Pollutants 2025 (ERL). As the ERL will only be released in 2025, this note already summarizes the results for the established and proposed policies.
Loss of Derogation and Farm Closures Contribute Most to the Decrease
With the established and proposed policy measures, ammonia emissions from agriculture are expected to decrease to 90 (85-96) kilotons by 2030. This is a reduction of 19% compared to emissions in 2022. This decline is significantly larger than previously estimated, due to the loss of derogation on the Nitrate Directive, resulting in less animal manure being applied to agricultural land than before. The dairy herd is also expected to shrink (possibly temporarily) as farmers find it difficult or costly to dispose of manure. Termination measures from the nitrogen policy also contribute to a reduction in the number of pigs, chickens, dairy cows, and veal calves. Furthermore, an increased share of low-emission barns for pigs and poultry contributes to the reduction of ammonia emissions.