Dutch economy in 2030: How government spending shifts reveal long-term trends
The Dutch government’s latest economic forecast reveals how spending on healthcare, social security, and defense is evolving. While budgets rise in some areas, reforms and policy changes are keeping costs in check—affecting your wallet and public services in the long run.
| Category | 2025-2030 Change (€ billion) | 2030 Share of GDP | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Social Security | +€13 (but €2.5B cut vs. baseline) | ~5% | Aging, labor reforms |
| Healthcare | +€10.6 (but €8B cut vs. baseline) | 9.7% | Aging, new treatments |
| Defense | +€12.7 | N/A | Geopolitical pressures |
| Interest Payments | Rising | 1.2% | Higher debt, interest rates |
| Government Spending (Total) | N/A | 46.5% | Policy shifts, economic growth |
The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis provides independent economic forecasts and policy evaluations for the Dutch government. Its reports, like the Central Economic Plan (CEP), shape budgetary decisions and long-term fiscal strategies, directly influencing public spending and economic priorities.
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Look to long series for the real state of the country
Are you looking vertically or horizontally? A strange question perhaps, but true number enthusiasts know what I’m talking about. Every budget and economic forecast includes a horizontal development, showing what changes from year to year. But there is also a vertical development, which reveals what changes for a given year compared to the ‘baseline path’ derived from existing policy.
Pieter Hasekamp
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Impact on the economy
Most readers may still be a bit bewildered, so let me explain the difference using the recently published Central Economic Plan 2026 (CEP) from the CPB. The CEP – not a plan, but a forecast – follows the coalition agreement of the new cabinet and shows how it impacts the economy and the budget.
A few examples: spending on social security, the largest item in the budget, increases from 2025 to 2030 by €13 billion. This figure is adjusted for inflation. Over the same period, defense spending rises by €12.7 billion and healthcare spending by €10.6 billion.
But isn’t the new cabinet actually cutting spending on social security and healthcare? That’s correct. However, the figures above show the horizontal development, the increase in spending over the years. This already accounts for the fact that the cabinet has made several changes compared to existing policy. The CPB analysis of the coalition agreement from February shows that in 2030, the cabinet will spend €2.5 billion less on social security and nearly €8 billion less on healthcare. This is the vertical development. So, compared to the plans of the previous cabinet, less ‘additional’ spending is taking place.
Long-term developments
What do all these amounts actually mean? To answer that question, it’s useful to look at the share of government spending in the total economy. My favorite appendices in the CEP are the so-called long series, which show how the economy and public finances have developed over a series of years.
For example, total government spending has fallen from 48.2% of GDP in 1996 to 42.4% in 2019, but it is now rising again, reaching 46.5% of GDP in 2030. Contrary to what some may think, the costs of the government apparatus itself have remained fairly constant: the ‘public administration’ item fell from 10.1% of GDP in 1996 to 8.8% in 2019 and stands at 9.5% in 2030.
Useful reforms
The largest increase is in healthcare spending. This rises from 5.7% of GDP in 1996 to 9.7% in 2030. This is due to aging, but also because greater prosperity and new treatment methods are driving up demand for care. At the same time, healthcare spending has been surprisingly stable since 2013: have the effects already played out? Well, no: over the past fifteen years, cost increases have mainly been dampened by healthcare agreements with the sector.
In social security, something similar applies: spending on state pensions and survivors’ pensions has hovered around 5% of GDP since 1995, as the effects of aging have been offset by raising the retirement age and other reforms that increased labor participation.
The biggest loser? Interest payments. In 1985, the Netherlands still spent 5.9% of GDP on interest payments on government debt, but this had fallen to 0.5% by 2021. However, these payments are now rising again due to higher interest rates and increasing debt, reaching 1.2% of GDP in 2030.
Benefiting from windfalls
Conclusion: Over the past thirty years, the Netherlands has not only benefited from a peace dividend but also from a participation dividend, an interest dividend, and a gas dividend (gas revenues fell from about 2.5% of GDP in 1995 to nearly zero). Thanks to these favorable developments, public finances are now in relatively good shape. But we know this won’t last: defense spending is rising sharply, aging will lead to higher spending on healthcare and social security, financing government debt will become more expensive, and gas revenues won’t return.
The good news is also in the long series: government policy can curb or redirect seemingly unstoppable trends. Total spending on social security is now clearly lower than thirty years ago, and despite aging, healthcare spending has been kept stable. The currently projected long-term trend of a steadily rising debt ratio is therefore certainly not inevitable.
And there’s more. Government spending is just one of the 26 appendices in the CEP. In many areas, from economic growth to the labor market, it helps to look horizontally: beyond the noise of the day, to the long-term development. So read those long series!
This essay by Pieter Hasekamp was also published on Friday, March 20, 2026, on the opinion page of Het Financieele Dagblad.