Antarctic ice loss stalls as extreme snowfall offsets melting, KNMI study reveals

A surprising shift in Antarctica’s ice balance has emerged: extreme snowfall, driven by atmospheric rivers, is temporarily halting ice loss. While this may slow sea-level rise, scientists warn it could be a short-term effect amid long-term climate threats to the Netherlands and beyond.

Key Data	Details
Primary Cause of Stagnation	Increased snowfall due to atmospheric rivers (ARs)
Snowfall Impact (2021 Event)	40 gigatons of snow—enough to cover the Netherlands in a 10-meter layer
Trend Shift	Ice mass loss paused since 2020, deviating from long-term decline (2002–20)
Regional Differences	East Antarctica: ice gain; West Antarctica/Peninsula: ice loss
Role of Sea Ice	Declining sea ice boosts moisture absorption, increasing snowfall
Future Uncertainty	Unknown if snowfall increase is temporary or a long-term trend reversal

The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) monitors global climate patterns, including polar ice dynamics, to assess risks like sea-level rise for the Netherlands. This study highlights how atmospheric and oceanic changes in Antarctica directly influence long-term climate projections and policy responses.

The summary and analysis above were generated by European AI

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Increase in snowfall on the Antarctic ice sheet

March 19, 2026

For several decades, the total ice mass of Antarctica has been decreasing sharply. This is mainly due to ice shelves—floating extensions of land ice that are thinning and breaking up faster as a result of high ocean temperatures from below. Since 2020, however, the total ice mass no longer appears to be decreasing. A recent study by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) in collaboration with other institutes shows that this remarkable stagnation is caused by a significant increase in snowfall on the ice sheet. This increase is largely due to atmospheric rivers transporting more moist air to the ice sheet more frequently.

Long-term decline in Antarctic land ice

Detailed satellite measurements have shown a clear long-term decline in the total ice mass of Antarctica since 2002 (Figure 1). This decline is not uniform: East Antarctica is gaining ice while West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula are losing ice (Figure 2). The overall balance of the ice sheet is the sum of what is added through snowfall and what is lost through melting and calving icebergs. Accurate analyses indicate that melting of floating ice shelves due to warm ocean water, and the associated earlier breakup of these ice shelves, is the main cause of the decline in the Antarctic ice sheet. The disappearance of the floating ice shelves means that land ice will flow faster toward the coast, causing the ice sheet as a whole to thin. Ultimately, the disappearing ice will lead to a higher sea level, particularly in distant regions such as the Netherlands. However, this decline is not uniform, mainly due to variations in the amount of snowfall in East Antarctica.

Turning point in 2020

Satellite data show a deviation from the declining trend since the start of measurements in 2002 (Figure 1). Snowfall in Antarctica has increased so much that total ice mass loss has stagnated in recent years. The question is: how can this sudden increase in snowfall be explained? The aforementioned KNMI study uses high-resolution models to accurately simulate the processes causing precipitation in Antarctica, particularly atmospheric rivers (ARs). These are elongated areas of high humidity that transport large amounts of moisture to the Antarctic continent, resulting in heavy snowfall. The study shows that since 2000, the number and intensity of atmospheric rivers have increased, which can partly explain the increased snowfall. The animation below shows a snow dump caused by an atmospheric river in early October 2021. It is estimated that this amounted to 40 gigatons of snow—enough to cover the entire Netherlands with a 10-meter layer of snow.

Role of sea ice

Sea ice—frozen seawater—around Antarctica is also decreasing due to warming oceans. More open water will lead to increased evaporation and a higher moisture content in the atmosphere. A high-resolution model was used to simulate the effect of sea ice on ARs. The model shows that without sea ice, ARs absorb more moisture from the ocean, leading to increased snowfall on the continent. It appears that the decline in sea ice also contributes to more precipitation on the continent, thereby increasing the ice mass of Antarctica.

The increased activity of atmospheric rivers seems to play a larger role than changes in sea ice, however. There are still many details and other relevant processes that need further investigation to explain the turning point in snowfall around 2020. The future will show whether the increase in snowfall is temporary or marks a change in the long-term trend.