The SBR notes that the next cabinet must make choices in scarcity in various areas: financially, in the labor market, in physical space, and in the space for nitrogen and CO2 emissions. These choices put pressure on prosperity and directly affect peoples lives. Therefore, prioritization is necessary: in the short term, not everything can happen at once, and in the long term, public finances will come under pressure. When making choices, it is important to consider both the budget and the broad prosperity in society.
Budget Anchors
The SBR bases the challenge of € 7 billion for the upcoming cabinet term on two budget anchors: stabilizing the national debt and a budget deficit with sufficient distance from the European threshold of -3% of GDP. If politics embraces the advice, the deficit will stand at -2% of GDP in 2030. This provides room for trend-based budget policy, meaning that in the event of economic headwinds, additional measures are not immediately necessary. Such measures often have consequences for people in the Netherlands.
A new cabinet can reduce the budget deficit by € 7 billion by lowering spending or through taxes. The SBR particularly advises measures that strengthen public finances in the long term, such as reforms of aging-sensitive expenditures. This can be achieved, for example, by limiting rising expenditures in healthcare and social security. Additionally, the study group advises a shift of burdens from labor to consumption, capital, and wealth taxes.
Spending Path
Due to rising aging costs, the Netherlands does not meet the long-term spending path from European budget rules (Stability and Growth Pact). The SBR believes it is wise for each cabinet to take on part of the bill to comply with this in the long term. If later cabinets also conform to this, the debt remains stable, and long-term challenges such as the costs of aging are gradually integrated. The advice to save € 7 billion in the upcoming period is a significant first step.
Defense
The Netherlands has committed to the new NATO standard. It is up to the new cabinet to determine what a realistic path is to grow towards 3.5% of GDP (pure defense spending) by 2035. The study group advises that new expenditures should be structurally covered from both other expenditures and taxes. This is in addition to the challenge of € 7 billion. If the coverage comes from sensible reforms that yield more in the long run, it is justifiable to take more time for the coverage, as long as the cabinet actually implements these measures.
Longer Term
The number of elderly people in the Netherlands, and thus the aging costs, will continue to rise until after 2040. Additionally, the defense budget will also increase further after 2030 as the Netherlands works towards the new NATO standard in 2035. The costs of climate change and CO2 reduction will also continue to have an impact for a long time. These future costs make it even more important that a new cabinet addresses these issues. Otherwise, these bills will be postponed. The perspective of broad prosperity must be central to this. It is important that policies, and the measurement of their results, are focused on all aspects of prosperity and well-being, as emphasized by the SBR. Economic growth and material prosperity are important components of this.
About the Budgetary Space Study Group
Prior to the parliamentary elections, the Budgetary Space Study Group advises politics on budgetary objectives, budget policy, and budget rules. With this independent advice, political parties and the new cabinet can make a good assessment of the financial policy to be pursued. The SBR has existed since 1971. The Future Begins Now is the 18th advice. The SBR is traditionally chaired by the Secretary-General of the Ministry of Finance and consists of the director of the Central Planning Bureau, the president of De Nederlandsche Bank, and senior officials from various ministries (AZ, BZK, EZ, FIN, SZW, and VWS). The Planning Bureau for the Environment and the Social and Cultural Planning Bureau have an advisory role.