ABF Research indicates that the expectation may be underestimated because the now-withdrawn rent freeze has been included in the expectation. The current permitting shows that there is potential to build 100,000 homes. In 2024, 94,000 permits for new construction were granted and another 10,000 for other additions, such as transformations. It takes an average of two years for a permitted home to be built, and not all permits are realized. In 2024, 82,000 homes were realized, and a similar number is expected in 2025.

“It is of great importance to ensure stability and continuity in housing construction,” says Minister Mona Keijzer of Housing and Spatial Planning. “The recently adopted Housing Management Act will help with this. Additionally, all parties involved are working on the Housing Agreements, and I am working to remove obstructive regulations to accelerate housing construction. In the coming period, we will also make it easier to better utilize the existing housing stock. This way, we can help many tens of thousands of home seekers each year.”

Planning Capacity
The planning capacity is nationally at 127%, where 130% has been agreed with local authorities. The planning capacity is 30% higher than what is needed because plans can be delayed or may not proceed. For the duration of the current housing deals (2025 to 2030), the estimated gross planning capacity is 930,400 homes. A point of concern is that a large part of these plans has not yet been permitted. In discussions with the housing deal regions, this point is high on the agenda.

In the longer term, after 2030, planning capacity decreases. For the period from 2025 to 2044, the total gross planning capacity is nearly 1.7 million homes. In addition to updating the housing deals, the designated breakthrough locations and the reduction of obstructive regulations (STOER) must lead to sufficient plans for the period after 2030.

Population Growth

The housing shortage is still high. In the trend forecast by ABF, the number of households is expected to increase by 822,000 in the next 15 years, reaching nearly 9.3 million by 2040. The conclusion is that the population continues to grow and that society is becoming older and more diverse. The increase in households consists largely of older singles and older couples. This means there will be more demand for (care) housing for the elderly. The number of single-person households is also increasing. Currently, there are about 3.4 million. The number of (young) adults living at home has also increased significantly: 60% of those aged 18 and older living at home are looking for a home.