Senators then asked questions related to the demographic scenarios outlined in the report. They asked, among other things, how population growth is perceived in surrounding countries and whether a positive birth rate can help reverse aging. There were also questions about whether emigration policy can be reshaped. This policy caused Dutch farmers to emigrate to Canada and New Zealand in the 1950s. Some senators expressed concern that the Netherlands could lose successful entrepreneurs and knowledge migrants due to emigration. Additionally, there were questions about the available space and the difference between city and countryside, and whether activating the unemployed workforce can help maintain prosperity without the need for migration.

Helga de Valk, director of the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and deputy chairman of the state commission, answered questions about the international dimension. The dividing lines in Europe run along socioeconomic status and education level: in all countries, it is visible that people with lower incomes have a lower life expectancy. These differences persist throughout life, so the recommendation is to limit differences at a young age. The whole society benefits from this, she said. Within Europe, other countries are more concerned about aging and shrinkage than about migration. In Germany and Spain, aging is more advanced than in the Netherlands, and there are concerns about regional depopulation. Regarding emigration, De Valk said it is wise to consider which groups you want to retain for the Netherlands.

Floris Alkemade, former Chief Government Architect and member of the state commission, discussed the available space and the difference between developments in cities and the countryside. He called the concept of the Randstad outdated because the entire area is gradually urbanizing. The dynamics differ; thanks to ASML, for example, there is a large Indian community in Eindhoven. Broad prosperity is lower in the east, north, and south of the Netherlands than in the center of the country. Growth also has a different rhythm there. Looking at the housing market, about 5 of the 8 million homes in the Netherlands are single-family homes, while there are only 2.7 million families. Thinking about other forms of living and a different building culture could promote flow.

State commission member Marco Pastors, also Director of the National Program Rotterdam South, emphasized that political action is expected. Coming from Rotterdam, where he has also been an alderman, he said that in his city, the combination of socially weak groups from the country and poorly paid labor migrants caused various bottlenecks. There was great pressure on care and schools, and population groups moved away from the city. The task of the state commission is to investigate how broad prosperity can be maintained. In cities, you see that if the welfare state is not maintained, the middle class also comes under pressure.

Van Zwol summarized that the state commission has looked twenty-five years into the future and not much further to avoid science fiction. Looking at the effects of scenarios, he said that shrinkage and zero growth offer no solution. Moreover, it would slow down economic growth. High and rapid population growth increases pressure on space and services and also does not provide a structural solution for aging. Moderate growth towards 19 to 20 million inhabitants by 2050 offers better outcomes for sufficient prosperity growth in a broad sense. Moderation and a bandwidth for migration are needed and provide orientation; there is a growth size that we can handle well as a country.

You can watch the meeting here.

You can read the report Moderate Growth of the State Commission on Demographic Developments 2050 here.