Thank you. Good afternoon everyone.
Lets start with our discussion on the economic outlook, which is becoming increasingly unpredictable due to the global trade barriers.
We welcome the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs above 10%, as it creates room for negotiation.
However, the 10% tariffs remain for most countries, impacting the global economy.
The USs 25% tariffs on steel, aluminium, cars, and car parts continue.
These developments complicate assessing their impact on the EU economy.
Its clear the US will be most affected by these tariffs, weakening their economy by reducing consumer purchasing power and increasing costs for imported goods.
Investor confidence in the US could further decline, negatively affecting GDP.
Our models show the US GDP could drop by 0.8% to 1.4% until 2027, with a smaller impact on the EU of about 0.2% of GDP.
If tariffs are seen as permanent or further actions are taken, the US could face a 3.1%-3.3% GDP decline, with the EU seeing a 0.5%-0.6% drop, and global GDP a 1.2% decrease. Global trade could fall by 7.7% in three years.
These models dont fully capture the potential loss of confidence, but show tariffs harm prosperity.
Europe did not initiate this confrontation and seeks resolution.
Tariffs conflict with the transatlantic trade partnership valued at €1.6 trillion in 2023, the largest in the world.
Financial markets have reacted with volatility.
The Commission will monitor developments closely and is open to negotiations, while ready to protect our interests if necessary.
The EU will continue enhancing the Single Market and diversifying trade.
We welcome Germanys infrastructure plan and debt reform, which could boost growth.
We anticipate Germanys fiscal plan after the new government takes office.
We discussed preparations for the World Bank and IMF Spring meetings.
The EU remains committed to the rules-based international order and cooperation through multilateral fora like the G20 and G7.
Thank you.