Today I am presenting the first Strategic Foresight Report of this new mandate.
And I have to say that timing to this Report of this is ideal.
We have the Strategic Foresight Report today, the Presidents State of the Union address tomorrow, and the kick-off of the European Citizens Panels on intergenerational fairness this Friday.
This means that this week is focused firmly on Europes future.
This Strategic Foresight Report is a bridge between the foresight work of the last Commission, and the new mandate.
So before delving deeper into the substance of the report, I want to say a word about the process.
Because of all the major reports and reflections we had in 2024 and 2025, we decided to draw on this intelligence.
Because there is a lot of value in stability, predictability and focusing on implementation of these valuable contributions.
Contributions such as the Letta, Draghi, Niinisto reports and the strategic agenda.
That is why it is a transitional report - because it tries to bridge the work of the last and the new college.
And very importantly, it builds on the preparedness strategy presented by Commissioner Lahbib and Executive Vice-President Mînzatu.
Because if preparedness is an emergency kit in cases of crisis, through foresight we try to build an immune system.
Let me now turn to this report: Resilience 2.0: Empowering the EU to thrive amid turbulence and uncertainty.
To give some perspective, the global order has changed considerably since the Commission has adopted the first Strategic Foresight Report in 2020.
Then the theme chosen was also Resilience and we had identified lessons in strengthening Resilience of the European Union.
These were valuable lessons which were crucial at the time.
The current situation requires us to recalibrate our approach.
To reach a new level of resilience.
We need a leap beyond the reactive approach, towards a more proactive and forward looking one.
And with foresight already embedded successfully into our policies, we already have a solid foundation to build on.
And I would like to illustrate this point with some examples that clearly speak to the European Unions successes and the lessons we have learnt.
Four in particular:
1. We are stronger together. Joint purchases of gas and vaccines during the COVID 19 pandemic are the most visible successes of why uniting our efforts is crucial.
2. Our collective resources give us a scale that no member state has acting individually. A 450 million citizen strong market, 24 million companies, 15% in world trade in goods and so on.
3. The EU acting together has shown that it has scale and capability to mount a transformative response to crisis.
4. And finally, we have shown that we can quickly adapt and transform during crisis. The SAFE instrument (adopted in a record 72 days) and the NEXT Generation EU are visible examples of this.
Looking ahead, there are three core elements that will be crucial.
1. A resilient EU in 2040 will be:
2. A peaceful European Union;
3. A values-based European Union;
And a European Union that prioritises the well-being of its citizens.
To deliver, we must stay ahead of the curve, looking at both the long-term global developments, as well as the EU specific challenges.
Starting with the long-term global developments, there are three main developments that merit our undivided attention.
1. First, Security. Security is key for all policies. Everything can be weaponised. This impacts business, investment, social cohesion, prosperity and the well-being of our citizens.
2. Secondly, we are living at a time where the international rules based order is being changed. This is both a challenge and an opportunity for the Union.
3. And finally, the impact of climate change and nature degradation. This has worsened significantly in the last years. To give an idea, between 1980 and 2023, the economic losses as a result of extreme weather events was 739 billion euro. A quarter of these losses were incurred in a two-year period between 2021 and 2023.
The report also highlights four EU specific challenges.
1. First, Economic Competitiveness and Strategic Autonomy. Both are essential for resilience and mutually reinforcing. They will depend on our ability to innovate and compete. Here, digital sovereignty, critical raw materials and energy security will be crucial.
2. Second, a balanced approach to Technology. We need to master the tech of the future from science to deployment. This will be key, not least to enable us to be at the forefront to ensure the best governance capabilities.
3. Third, peoples well-being and societal resilience. This is one of our core objectives. The European Social model is one of our core strengths but it is under strain.
4. Defending democracy and fundamental values in a digital environment where truth too often loses to clicks.
From these challenges, the report proposes eight directions for action.
These eight areas of action are:
- Building a coherent global vision for the EU;
- Amplifying internal and external security;
- Harnessing AI and the power of technology and research;
- Strengthening long-term economic resilience and preparing for labour market upheavals;
- Supporting inclusive wellbeing;
- Reimagining education;
- Strengthening democracy; and
- Anticipating demographic transformation and strengthening intergenerational fairness.
Let me stress one in particular: intergenerational fairness!
And I am highlighting this especially because I am the Commissioner in charge of intergenerational fairness, but also because what is at stake here is whether we leave future generations opportunities — or excuses.
As already mentioned, on Friday we are starting with the European citizens panel dedicated to this topic.
I am indeed very much looking forward to having citizens recommendations feeding into the intergenerational fairness strategy I will present to the college next year.
This report is a beginning.
A renewed call to embed foresight further into our policy tools.
A call for a resilient Europe, and a call to make foresight transformative for our policies and for the Union as a whole.
Thank you.