The world is increasingly openly in conflict. Espionage, cyberattacks, economic advantage, and disinformation are being used as weapons by which countries delineate their spheres of influence and pursue their interests, sometimes at the expense of others.
The balance of power is changing and it is uncertain what the world order will look like. For the Netherlands, which owes much of its peace and prosperity to international trade and a world order based on rules, this brings significant risks. This is also evident from the multitude of threats that the Netherlands faces. This is stated by the AIVD in the annual report 2024.
Director General AIVD Erik Akerboom: We are experiencing a shift. From a situation where our security seemed self-evident, to a situation where it has become the main concern for many Western countries. From uncertainty as an exception, to uncertainty as a rule. The service is doing its utmost to meet the current challenges and to be prepared for various scenarios regarding geopolitical developments.
A more aggressive Russia tested the resolve of the West
The greatest shift in thinking about security in Europe comes from the threat posed by the Russian regime. In 2024, the Kremlin and associated networks and organizations adopted a more aggressive, bolder, and provocative stance towards European countries. They engaged in espionage, secretly organized disinformation campaigns to influence public debate, and conducted cyberattacks. The regime uses sabotage that borders on state terrorism to instill fear in Europe. We have also seen actions in the Netherlands that could lead to sabotage. The AIVD, together with the MIVD, recognized and stopped these actions in time.
Striving for dominance shaped Chinas actions in 2024
In 2024, the AIVD and the MIVD publicly attributed a cyberattack on a Dutch defense network directly to the Chinese state for the first time. This attack demonstrates the intent to spy on the Dutch government and political targets. Moreover, China cooperated with Russia to ensure that the West has less influence in the world. The countries worked together politically, economically, and militarily, even though they sometimes have different interests. Although China does not officially supply weapons and ammunition to Russia, Chinese companies have indeed supplied dual-use goods for the Russian war industry, including attack drones. This made China a direct player in Europes security and a threat to the Netherlands and its allies.
Danger of extremist violence due to growing polarization
The war between Hamas and Israel escalated in 2024 into a broader military conflict in the Middle East. The Gaza war thus also put pressure on the social stability of the Netherlands. The danger of a severely polarized debate was evident during the riots and the use of violence following the football match Ajax-Maccabi Tel Aviv. The violence did not come from well-known extremists, but from individuals who took matters into their own hands and were motivated by an extremist ideological framework.
Terrorist threats from three angles
The threat of jihadist attacks further increased in 2024. We have seen a return of stimulated and directed attacks in Europe. Jihadists and other extremist Muslims carried out eleven attacks in Europe last year. Several dozen attack plots have been prevented by intelligence and security services, including around the European Football Championship in Germany and the Olympic Games in France. The AIVD has contributed to preventing several of these disruptions.
Attacks by right-wing terrorists are also conceivable. The AIVD disrupted various right-wing terrorist threats. This often involves young people, including minors. For the first time, supporters of anti-institutional extremism in the Netherlands have been charged with terrorist offenses. They had concrete plans to carry out so-called citizen arrests on a mayor and police officers and were in possession of weapons.
Criminal networks develop advanced capabilities
Criminal networks deploy specialized, their own intelligence teams to monitor individuals they see as threats, such as lawyers or journalists. This makes the networks better able to carry out attacks. Criminal intelligence teams sometimes infiltrate parts of the government to obtain information. AIVD research concretely contributes to preventing such attacks. And it allows the government to tighten policies and regulations where necessary to better combat criminal undermining.
Geopolitical unrest calls for focus and agility from AIVD
In a time of great tensions, the AIVD provides the government with independent intelligence about the security situation in the world. Many AIVD investigations from last year were related to changing power relations in the world and international conflicts. In recent years, threats have sometimes developed so quickly that the AIVD had to initiate new investigations and shift priorities in a short time. Especially in cases of non-military conflict between states, intelligence and security services help protect the national security of the Netherlands. With strong intelligence positions, the AIVD helps the government understand the intentions and plans of other countries, even if they are secret.