The threats arising from the rapid online radicalization of youth pose a danger to national security. This is stated in the recently published Threat Assessment Terrorism Netherlands (DTN) by the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV), which is based on information from, among others, the AIVD. The likelihood of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands is real, therefore the threat level remains at 4 (substantial).
Earlier this year, the AIVD published a publication on the increasing threat of online radicalizing minors in both jihadist and right-wing terrorist environments. This threat to national security remains current and is also described in the DTN.
Online Jihadist Networks
Jihadism is the largest terrorist threat to Europe. Just like in the second half of 2024, there have been dozens of attacks and disrupted attack plans in Europe in recent months. Many perpetrators of these attacks act alone, although they are inspired by the terrorist organization Islamic State (ISIS). In many cases, the attackers have no pronounced target preference, but often choose targets with symbolic value or significant societal impact. This includes Jewish or Israeli targets or individuals accused of desecrating Islam.
The threat from older physical jihadist networks is decreasing. In contrast, there is a new generation of jihadists who are part of online groups, where they come into contact with like-minded individuals. These online networks are largely made up of teenagers and young adults who create, edit, and spread jihadist content. There is a risk that individuals or a group inspired by this online propaganda may resort to violence in the Netherlands. The number of minors arrested in the Netherlands in connection with terrorism has also increased in recent years.
Right-Wing Terrorist Threat
Similar to jihadist youth, the NCTV sees rapid online radicalization of youth in right-wing terrorist online networks. This group also consists largely of young people searching for their identity and seeking meaning in their lives, often combined with psychiatric or psychosocial issues.
Online, these young people easily end up in right-wing extremist groups and chats. In these online groups, radicalization can occur quickly because extremist language is encouraged and liked. These young people sporadically meet physically and are online members of multiple chat groups, where new groups regularly emerge. This makes it difficult to determine the size of these networks. Through the use of social media and participation in online networks or groups, they come into contact with violent and terrorist content. There is a real chance that individuals within these groups will rapidly radicalize and ultimately resort to terrorist violence.
Current Threat Level
The DTN is an analysis of national and international terrorist threats against the Netherlands and Dutch interests abroad. The NCTV prepares the DTN two to three times a year. The AIVD contributes substantive information to this threat assessment.