The balance of power in the world is changing, causing the Netherlands to face increasing uncertainty and unpredictability on the international stage. Countries are increasingly willing to use power to defend their own interests. Europe is more reliant on itself for its security and resilience. These are all conclusions from the Threat Assessment of State Actors (DBSA) 2025.
Today, the heads of the General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD), the Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD), and the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV) presented the joint DBSA 2025.
Pieter-Jaap Aalbersberg (National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security): “This threat assessment confirms that we in the Netherlands cannot remain idle. It is not a question of whether we will experience societal disruptive effects, but when. Therefore, it is important that we continue to focus on security and resilience.”
Threats Remain High and Increased in Sabotage
The DBSA appears in a turbulent and uncertain time. Over the past two years, the various threats from state actors towards the Netherlands have remained the same, while the threat of sabotage has increased. More and more countries seem to be trying to influence Dutch society through (digital) espionage, intimidation, or the spread of disinformation. A direct military attack on NATO territory is unlikely.
Vice Admiral Peter Reesink (Director Military Intelligence and Security Service): “The pressure on our security is unprecedented. It is therefore all the more urgent that we keep an eye on these developments and can provide an appropriate response.”
Economy
The economy is strongly linked to geopolitics. Strategic dependencies are used as a political or economic pressure tool. Various countries are also trying to openly or secretly acquire European and Dutch knowledge and technology, both in the academic and private sectors. The use of economic instruments by state actors can have significant consequences for the Netherlands, potentially making life more expensive for its inhabitants in the short term.
Consequences for the Netherlands
The mentioned threats can lead to societal disruption, disruption of vital infrastructure, and potential economic damage.
Erik Akerboom (Director-General of the General Intelligence and Security Service): “Never before have we been questioned so much by organizations about what they can do to better protect processes and people. They are experiencing the consequences of conflicts and unrest. The Netherlands is a potential target country. That is why we are alert.”
Digital sabotage may have the greatest impact on Dutch society. This could lead to electricity, internet, payment transactions, or clean drinking water being temporarily unavailable. It is also expected that the number of sabotage actions will continue to increase within Europe.
Need for a Resilient Society
Threats from state actors remain ever-present and can fuel feelings of unrest and insecurity in society. It is therefore extra important that the Netherlands becomes more resilient. As a country, we must stand stronger on our own. By making vital infrastructure resilient and preparing society as a whole for possible disruptions or (covert) interference, we stand stronger against the threat. Working towards a resilient society is a task for all of us: government, businesses, civil society organizations, and citizens must work together.