High Quality
Faster and still of high quality. This will now apply to the estimates of economic growth and labor market that the CBS releases after each quarter. The renewal meets an important need of users. ‘They receive the same data as before, but after 30 days instead of 45 days’, says Lengkeek. In the Netherlands, the Central Planning Bureau (CPB), De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), and several ministries eagerly anticipate the estimate of the past quarter. The CBS presents the figures – with an explanation – to media representatives and thus to the public. Internationally, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) also uses the figures. Eurostat, the European statistical office, also receives the data from CBS and incorporates them into an EU-wide estimate.Extensive Economy
Regarding parties making international policies, Chong says: ‘Many important users, such as the European Central Bank (ECB), want a complete picture of the past quarter as quickly as possible. It is therefore good that an extensive economy like the Netherlands is now participating. In fact, we already participated, but only the gross domestic product (GDP), without underlying details about, for example, industries, was delivered to Eurostat for inclusion in the so-called EU aggregate. Data on commercial services were missing, for example. Since early 2024, these data have been available, making it possible to publish the economic growth figures for the Netherlands faster without loss of quality.’
Pillars
Since 1986, the CBS has published quarterly estimates of economic growth. In the 1990s, quarterly labor market figures were added. Chong focuses on the first within CBS, Lengkeek on the second. Chong talks about the component ‘economic growth’. ‘Here, the production of all Dutch companies and government institutions in the past quarter is measured. We correct these figures by deducting the goods and services needed by companies and government institutions to produce. Think of purchased raw materials. In fact, with GDP, we measure what value companies and government institutions have added in the quarter. With the same figures, you can also look from the perspective of consumers instead of from the perspective of companies. What were consumer expenditures in the past quarter? We also include those in the estimate.’Labor Market Figures
Regarding the ‘labor market’ component, Lengkeek says: ‘We publish quarterly figures of employees and self-employed about the number of jobs, the number of hours worked, and the number of employed persons. These so-called labor volumes are an underlying factor of GDP. All tables that belong to the estimate of economic growth and labor market will now be published after 30 days instead of 45 days.’ The Quarterly Labor Market Report will also appear 30 instead of 45 days after the end of the quarter. This is a joint publication of various labor market teams within CBS. It provides a broad overview of how many vacancies there were, how many jobs were added and disappeared, how many unemployed there are, and how tight the labor market is.Thoroughly Prepared
The advancement of the economic estimate has been thoroughly prepared. Lengkeek: ‘In 2022 we started with the first activities and tests for the labor market figures.’ Chong: ‘And in 2023 we started working on the part about economic growth.’ How can the CBS publish the estimate faster while maintaining good quality? Those were the two main challenges from the start. Chong: ‘A collective achievement has been delivered within CBS. Colleagues from different teams have worked towards delivering data on the past quarter earlier. In economic growth, it ranges from figures on company turnovers to data on international trade. And from data on energy consumption to information on government finances. The second acceleration was needed by colleagues who process the data into an estimate. They used to have ten days to do this, from now on, it will be five.’ The shorter lead time has been made possible by compiling the estimate with fewer details. Chong: ‘This does not affect our users, by the way. They receive the same data as before.’Quality Criteria
Lengkeek: ‘For compiling labor market figures, we will now receive earlier figures from colleagues about the wage declaration by employers of their employees. Others provide information from the Labor Force Survey. For both economic growth and the labor market, it has been tested based on pre-set quality criteria whether the faster method did not compromise the quality of the figures. It turned out not to be the case.’Relevant Links
- News - Announcement of acceleration of first estimate of economic growth and labor market
- Macro-economics - What are the national accounts?
- Time Series - Economic Growth
- Economy Dashboard - Economic Growth
- Time Series - Quarterly Labor Market Report