Dutch economy faces slow growth and rising debt by 2034, CPB projections reveal
New economic forecasts by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis predict sluggish growth, rising unemployment, and increasing government debt by 2034. Households may see stagnant purchasing power and higher taxes, impacting daily finances and long-term financial security.
| Indicator | 2019/2022 | 2023/2026 | 2027/2030 | 2031/2034 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%) | 2.4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Unemployment rate (% of labour force) | 3.5 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Inflation (CPI, %) | 4.1 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Purchasing power (median households, %) | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.1 | 0.6 |
| Government debt (% of GDP) | 48.4 | 45.3 | 46.8 | 52.5 |
| Total tax burden (% of GDP) | 38.2 | 39.0 | 40.1 | 40.5 |
| People in poverty (%) | 3.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
The CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis is an independent government agency responsible for economic forecasting and policy analysis. Its projections inform government decisions on fiscal policy, taxation, and social welfare programs, shaping the economic landscape for citizens and businesses.
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Update of Medium-Term Outlook through 2034 (March 2026)
In addition to the Central Economic Plan (CEP) 2026, the CPB is also publishing this medium-term projection, covering the period up to and including 2034.
Downloads
- CEP 2026: Key Data through 2034 Pdf, 329.36 kB
- Data for CEP 2026 Figures Excel 77.78 kB
Key Data Table through 2034, March 2026
Also see the explanation of the figures and concepts in the key data table.
International economy2019/2022 2023/2026 2027/2030 2031/2034Volume of world trade in goods and services (%) 2.3 1.5 2.1 2.0Competitor prices (goods and services, excluding energy and fuel commodities, %) 4.9 0.0 1.7 1.7Oil price (dollars per barrel, year-end level) 97.2 59.6 63.8 65.7Euro exchange rate (dollars per euro, year-end level) 1.05 1.17 1.22 1.29Long-term interest rate Netherlands (year-end level, %) 1.4 2.9 2.9 2.9
Volume of GDP and expenditure2019/2022 2023/2026 2027/2030 2031/2034Gross domestic product (GDP, economic growth, %) 2.4 0.9 1.2 0.8Household consumption (%) 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.9Government consumption (%) 2.6 2.6 1.5 1.4Investments (including inventories, %) 4.4 -1.9 2.5 1.5Exports of goods and services (%) 2.5 0.4 1.3 1.2Imports of goods and services (%) 2.6 0.3 1.9 1.9
Prices, wages, purchasing power and poverty2019/2022 2023/2026 2027/2030 2031/2034Price of gross domestic product (%) 3.6 4.5 2.6 2.3Export prices of goods and services (%) 6.1 0.2 1.7 1.7Import prices of goods and services (%) 6.9 -1.3 1.5 1.6Inflation, national consumer price index (CPI, %) 4.1 3.2 2.3 2.1Inflation, harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP, %) 4.5 3.1 2.2 2.0Wage rate in businesses (per hour, %) 3.4 5.7 3.6 3.2Collective labour agreement (CAO) wage rate in businesses (%) 2.6 5.4 3.2 3.0Purchasing power, static, median of all households (%)(a) 0.5 1.2 0.1 0.6People in poverty (year-end level, %)(b) 3.4 2.5 2.6 3.0Poverty intensity, median (year-end level, %) 13.0 21.0 19.5 16.4
Labour market2019/2022 2023/2026 2027/2030 2031/2034Labour force (%) 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.2Employed labour force (%) 1.7 0.8 0.8 0.1Unemployed labour force (in thousands of persons, year-end level) 350 425 460 480Unemployed labour force (year-end level, % of labour force) 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.5Employment (in hours, %) 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.0
Other2019/2022 2023/2026 2027/2030 2031/2034Labour income share in businesses (year-end level, %) 68.0 69.3 70.5 71.3Labour productivity in businesses (per hour, %) 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.8Individual savings ratio (year-end level, % of disposable income) 1.5 5.8 6.0 6.1Current account balance (year-end level, % of GDP) 6.8 9.8 8.5 7.0
General government sector2019/2022 2023/2026 2027/2030 2031/2034EMU balance (year-end level, % of GDP) 0.0 -2.6 -2.2 -3.1EMU debt (year-end level, % of GDP) 48.4 45.3 46.8 52.5Total tax burden (year-end level, % of GDP) 38.2 39.0 40.1 40.5Total government expenditure (year-end level, % of GDP) 43.6 46.0 46.5 47.7
Additional Key Data through 2034
Investments and exports2019/2022 2023/2026 2027/2030 2031/2034Gross investments in the business sector (excluding housing, %) 3.0 -0.4 2.1 1.9Investments in housing by businesses (%) 2.5 0.4 1.7 0.4Exports of domestically produced goods and services (excluding energy, %) 1.5 0.4 1.1 1.1Re-exports (excluding energy, %) 4.9 0.8 2.2 2.1
Prices, government, derived CPI and CAO wage rate in market sector2019/2022 2023/2026 2027/2030 2031/2034Export prices of goods and services, excluding energy (%) 4.5 1.8 1.9 1.8Derived national consumer price index (CPI, %) 4.2 2.6 2.1 2.1Wage rate in the government sector (%) 3.2 4.1 2.3 2.1Price of government consumption, employee compensation (%) 3.5 5.0 3.8 3.2Price of material government consumption (imoc, %) 3.0 4.8 3.6 3.2Price of intermediate consumption (%) 3.9 3.4 2.4 2.2Price of gross government investments (iboi, %) 4.2 4.7 2.7 2.5Price of national expenditure (%) 3.5 3.7 2.5 2.3Price of value added by businesses (%) 4.0 3.8 2.5 2.3CAO wage rate in the market sector (%) 3.3 4.6 2.6 2.4
Various key data (in levels)2019/2022 2023/2026 2027/2030 2031/2034Gross domestic product (GDP, in billions of euros) 993.8 1231.5 1431.2 1619.6Children in poverty (%)(b) 4.0 2.3 2.2 2.4Population (in thousands of persons) 17591 18140 18445 18735Labour force (in thousands of persons) 9898 10300 10645 10710Gross modal income (euros) 39000 48500 55500 63500Structural EMU balance (EC method, % of GDP) -1.3 -1.4 -1.7 -2.5
(a) For the period 2018–2021, the arithmetic mean was applied instead of the average annual purchasing power development. (b) The new poverty definition by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the Netherlands Institute for Social Research (SCP) and the National Institute for Family Finance Information (Nibud) has been used as the poverty threshold.
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