About 7 percent of smokers quit smoking after the tobacco tax increase in 2024. Additionally, 16 percent attempted to quit, 22 percent reduced their smoking, and 14 percent switched to an alternative, such as a cheaper cigarette brand. This is evident from RIVM research into the effects of this tax increase. Furthermore, surveyed smokers themselves indicate that they buy many tobacco products abroad. It is estimated that about 60 percent of the tobacco products they purchase come from abroad.
This last percentage is significantly higher than after previous tax increases. In 2023, it was estimated that about 40 percent of tobacco products came from abroad, and in 2020, this was still 30 percent. The RIVM concludes that smokers still appear to be price-sensitive, but notes that, given the availability of cheap tobacco from abroad, the pricing policy is becoming less effective. As long as tobacco prices in neighboring countries do not rise, the RIVM expects that the share of people quitting or attempting to quit will decrease.
Policy Aimed at Reducing Tobacco Purchases Abroad
Therefore, the RIVM recommends policymakers focus on measures that can reduce the purchase of tobacco abroad. This can be achieved by aligning tobacco prices in Europe more closely. Another recommendation is to lower the maximum amount of tobacco that can be brought in from abroad and actively monitor this.
Making E-Cigarettes Less Attractive
Furthermore, the RIVM recommends introducing taxes on e-cigarettes (vapes). In addition to the health consequences that vapes entail, many young people start smoking through e-cigarettes. They then gradually switch to real cigarettes. The ban on flavors for vapes also contributes to making e-cigarettes less attractive. Recent other research by the RIVM has already shown that this ban seems to have an effect.
Pricing Policy Effective Against Smoking
From the scientific literature, it is known that pricing policy is the most (cost)effective against smoking. The World Health Organization (WHO World Health Organization (World Health Organization)) also recommends that taxes be significantly increased each year. The price increase in 2023 was 11 percent for cigarettes and 28 percent for rolling tobacco. In the latest tax increase (2024), there was an increase of 24 percent (cigarettes) and 45 percent (rolling tobacco). This larger increase seems to have contributed to more people buying abroad.
About the Research
Within the National Prevention Agreement (NPA), it has been agreed to gradually increase the tax on tobacco (cigarettes and rolling tobacco). The RIVM has been asked by the Ministry of VWS Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport (Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport) to investigate the effects of the tax increases. Both before and after the implementation of a tax increase, participants were asked about their smoking behavior through questionnaires. Previously, the RIVM also mapped the effects of the price increases of 2020 and 2023.