The emission of air pollutants has significantly decreased over the past decades and is expected to continue to decline in the coming years. This greatly increases the likelihood that European emission targets for air pollutants will be met by 2030. However, despite a significant reduction in ammonia emissions due to the expiration of the derogation, legal national targets for nitrogen deposition on nature are far out of reach. This is evident from the Emission Estimates Air Pollutants (ERL) 2025 made by PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) and RIVM, with contributions from TNO and WUR Wageningen University & Research (Wageningen University & Research).
Air pollution is harmful to human health and nature. Every two years, the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency) and RIVM map estimated emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx Nitrogen Oxides (Nitrogen Oxides)), ammonia, fine particulate matter (PM2.5 fine particulate matter (fine particulate matter)), sulfur dioxide, and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). This is required under the European NEC national emission ceiling (national emission ceiling) directive. According to this directive, there must be a steady reduction of the blanket of air pollution across the EU. The likelihood that the European NEC emission targets for 2030 will be achieved is very high, especially due to European emission standards for mobility and industry, as well as climate and manure policy.
Nitrogen Emissions Decline More Than Previous Estimates
Part of the publication also includes the estimates for nitrogen. It shows that nitrogen emissions are declining more than in the previous estimates. Due to a special position (derogation), Dutch farmers are allowed to spread more manure than the Nitrates Directive prescribes. This derogation will expire on January 1, 2026. Consequently, and due to termination schemes and low-emission stables, national ammonia emissions from agriculture are expected to decline from 110 kton kiloton (kiloton) in 2022 to 90 kton in 2030. Roughly half of that is due to the expiration of the derogation. The new estimate is 15 percent lower than the estimate for agriculture in 2030 from the ERL 2023. What the effect on nitrogen deposition will be, RIVM still needs to calculate. RIVM does not expect this additional decline to be sufficient to meet the legal nitrogen deposition targets.
Clean Air Agreement
The Clean Air Agreement (SLA) is an agreement between the government, provinces, and municipalities. The main goal is to achieve at least a 50 percent health gain by 2030 compared to 2016 through better air quality. Based on the ERL 2023, a 46 percent health gain was realized. How much improvement the current estimate will yield will still need to be calculated by RIVM.
Effects on Concentration and Deposition
RIVM calculates the concentration and deposition of various substances in the Netherlands annually and uses this for monitoring air quality and nitrogen deposition. The Emission Estimates of Air Pollutants 2025 form the basis for the new forecasts. Throughout this year, these will appear in various RIVM products, such as the GCN Large-scale Concentration Maps Netherlands (Large-scale Concentration Maps Netherlands) report and the Nitrogen Deposition Monitor in Natura 2000 areas.
Read the full news article (external link) on the PBL website.