Keynote speech by Commissioner Dombrovskis on understanding the impact of the Recovery and Resilience Facility

Thank you, Maarten. Good morning, everyone.

It is my pleasure to join you to share some reflections on the impact the Recovery and Resilience Facility has had so far.

Indeed, as Maarten noted, I had the privilege of helping set up the RRF during the dark days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The aim at the time was clear: to support Europes economic recover faster in the short-term, and to become stronger and more resilient in the long-term.

The RRF has delivered on both fronts.

The RRF had an immediate positive impact at its creation: on spreads, on economic confidence and, subsequently, on public investment levels.

Let me now focus on some of the longer term, more structural, impacts of the RRF.

Beginning with reforms.

One of the key innovative features of the RRF is that it goes beyond funding investments.

It also provides financial incentives for the implementation of reforms at an unprecedented scale.

The EU has been lagging behind international competitors in terms of productivity growth for some time now.

Thats why reforms that have structural and long-term effects, especially those that enhance productivity, are crucial.

Many such reforms are being implemented through Recovery and Resilience Plans.

The broad range of reforms include, for example, measures to improve the business environment in Italy or Croatia, limit regulatory burdens for SMEs in Ireland, reform labour markets and support for jobseekers in Spain or France, expedite permitting procedures in Czechia, or encourage professional training in Belgium, to name just a few, since the number and variety of reforms is truly vast.

Overall, our data shows that Member States are implementing many more of the recommendations issued to them under the European Semester, thanks to the support of the RRF.

By June 2025, almost 80% of the relevant recommendations – those adopted in the two years preceding the introduction of the RRF – recorded at least some progress.

By comparison, before the RRF, only 62% of the recommendations that were relevant at the time had recorded at least some progress, over a comparable period of time. 

So, the numbers speak for themselves.

The RRFs performance-based approach and emphasis on reforms, has led to a marked increase, 18 percentage points to be precise, in the implementation of crucial policy recommendations.

Many of these reforms will have a positive impact on long-term growth and have been – on many occasions – implemented alongside investments.

Of course, the full impact of reforms is difficult to quantify for the moment and will only play out in the longer run.

For investments, however, we can already give some preliminary estimates.

According to our modelling, RRF investments have the potential to increase real GDP in the EU by up to 1.4% in 2026.

And we have real-life, concrete examples of their impact.

These investments range from supporting companies becoming more digital in Austria or Denmark, helping to fund Sofias metro expansion, providing computers for vulnerable pupils in Latvia, supporting the rail network in in Italy, upgrading hospital systems in Croatia or expanding the grid network in Estonia.

Again, just a few examples of the thousands of projects across many different areas.

So, we are seeing real investments that are making real, tangible impacts across Europe.

As could be expected, countries with a large RRF allocation have seen their growth significantly supported, helping their convergence, which was another key objective of the Facility.

Average GDP growth in Italy, Spain, Poland, Croatia and Greece, for example, was over 4% in the period from 2021to 2024, significantly outpacing the EU average growth rate.

We also know that the economic benefits of Recovery and Resilience Plans span across our Member States.

This is a result of our strongly interconnected economies and supply chains.

The spillover effects account for around 40% of the RRFs total economic impact.

In some countries, such as Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland and Austria, the benefits for the national economy are more than double the size of their national RRPs, thanks to the investments financed through the plans of other countries.

Turning now to the future.

We have already seen the positive impact of the RRF.

But its full legacy is yet to be determined.

2026 will be a decisive year in this regard.

And the clock is ticking.

Member States must complete all agreed milestones by the end of August.

We must therefore remain focused on implementation, implementation, implementation.

I welcome that most Member States have taken important steps to simplify and streamline their recovery and resilience plans.

This will greatly facilitate their delivery.

Looking ahead, I am confident that, with commitment and determination on all sides, the RRF can succeed in living up to its full potential.

Working together, we can ensure that the RRF delivers a lasting positive impact for Europe and its citizens. 

To conclude, As the RRF enters the home straight, it is timely to begin the process of assessing its legacy and impact.

Thorough evaluations are essential elements of any publicly funded programme.

This is especially true for the RRF, given that it is the EUs first large funding instrument that combines investments with reforms, and payments based on delivering those in practice.

So, what are our initial reflections on the operation of the RRF?

We have seen the positive impact a performance-based instrument has had on the implementation of reforms.

And the power of linking reforms with investments.

But there are also areas to be improved. 

As part of the Commissions broader simplification agenda, we are holding regular implementation dialogues to engage with practitioners navigating our rules on the ground. 

I have held two such dialogues on the RRF.

Here, participants emphasised the need to streamline processes and avoid double reporting, as well as better involving local and regional authorities. 

These lessons must be taken into account when shaping future EU financing instruments.

More broadly, we believe in the importance of research as a strong foundation for shaping public policy.

Robust, independent, and transparent analysis is essential if we want to draw the right conclusions from the RRF.

The Commission is also actively contributing to this effort.

We are conducting our own analytical work, which will be presented in a session later this morning.

And we are supporting external research projects that focus on specific policy areas. 

At the same time, we value the role that independent research plays.

This is why the Commission launched a call for papers on the RRF in 2025.

And I am pleased that the best submissions will be presented at todays conference.

So, I will conclude by wishing you all a very productive discussion.

The insights gained from these discussions will feed into our work on the ex-post evaluation of the RRF.

Thank you.