71% of government organizations have not yet started preparations to protect themselves against the threat of quantum computers. This is stated by the Netherlands Court of Audit in the report Focus on quantum in the government published today. This research provides the Court of Audit with a first insight into preparations for the opportunities and threats of quantum technology.
Quantum technology is still largely futuristic at the moment, but it already holds both a promising potential and a serious threat. The biggest risk of quantum technology for the government is that foreign governments could use quantum computers to break encryption techniques. This would allow them to access sensitive data and attack critical infrastructure.
Social disruption looming
The government currently uses encryption to protect classified information, access to vital infrastructure such as water barriers and bridges, login with DigiD, and passport verification. If a quantum computer can break the encryption, it could have major consequences for our lives. Sensitive or classified information could be exposed, traffic could be disrupted, or gates might no longer open. This could lead to social disruption. To prevent this, post-quantum cryptography is needed. This is a form of encryption that quantum computers cannot break.
Most government organizations are currently not prepared for this, concludes the Netherlands Court of Audit in the report. Although most surveyed government organizations are working on their information security, they have hardly taken any measures specifically aimed at quantum computers. Most agencies have not yet made plans to implement quantum-safe cryptography, and ministries have not yet held talks with suppliers. Also, no administrative responsible persons have been appointed.
Quantum computers threaten the governments confidential information and vital infrastructure
‘Q-Day’ possibly as early as 2030
The main obstacles are a lack of capacity and expertise, and a lack of urgency because it is still unclear when a powerful quantum computer will really exist. The development of the technology may take years, but it could also happen very quickly. According to the AIVD, ‘Q-Day’ (the day when malicious actors can break current cryptography with quantum computers) could happen as early as 2030. That is in just 4 years.
Academic top position thanks to government funding: can it be maintained?
Quantum technology can also offer many innovations to look forward to. Once super-powerful quantum computers exist, we may be able to measure more precisely, communicate more securely, and perform certain calculations faster than with regular computers. The cabinet therefore sees great potential for the earning capacity of the Netherlands. The Netherlands is investing €615 million in this technology via the National Growth Fund for the period 2021-2028. With this money, the Netherlands has established a thriving network and secured an academic top position.
However, many plans and projects are still in the pipeline. It is difficult to predict whether the Netherlands will maintain this top position in the future. The big challenge is to translate these promises into concrete market applications and to secure a place in the high-tech market. Other countries have invested a lot of money in quantum technology in recent years.
The Ministry of Economic Affairs is working with other ministries on a government-wide quantum strategy. This strategy should include goals and actions so that the government can deal with both the opportunities and risks of quantum technology. However, the concrete content and budget are still unknown.