The forecast model shows a total asylum inflow for 2025 ranging from approximately 40,000 in the minimum scenario to 55,300 in the maximum scenario. For 2026, the range is between 39,000 and 67,100. In the previous forecast, these numbers were higher: between 52,000 and 74,800 in 2025 and between 45,200 and 78,900 in 2026. This includes first asylum applications, family reunifications, resettlers, and repeated asylum applications.

Despite the lower inflow expectations, the migration chain will remain under pressure in the coming years. Therefore, the cabinet is taking various measures to gain control over migration, such as the introduction of the Asylum Emergency Measures Act, the dual-status system, and the implementation of the European Migration Pact. These measures focus on:

  • limiting inflow through legislation;
  • realizing sufficient reception capacity;
  • encouraging the departure of rejected asylum seekers;
  • promoting the transition of status holders to municipalities.

Asylum Procedure

The average acceptance rate in previous years was between 70% and 85%. In the first quarter of 2025, this has dropped to about 40%. This decline is largely caused by the decision and departure moratorium on Syria. Additionally, the IND has implemented measures since July 2024 to align the assessment of asylum applications more closely with European and international law, including the revision of group policy and tightening of the credibility test.

Ukraine

The Netherlands continues to host Ukrainian refugees. The forecast is that in 2025, an average of 270 new registrations will be added per week, and in 2026, an average of 290 per week. As of September 2025, approximately 98,000 places have been created. The government continues to support municipalities in realizing and maintaining municipal reception places for Ukrainians.

Forecast Model

The MPP outlines a shared future vision for the migration chain. It provides a numerical picture of the inflow, throughflow, and outflow within the chain. This is done using various scenarios, which always involve some uncertainty in the forecasts.