Individualization of Terrorism Makes Threat More Unpredictable

Radicalization is increasingly an individual process. Carrying out an attack is more often a personal matter than before. This makes it harder to predict who, when, and why someone resorts to violence. This is stated by the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV) in the biannual Threat Assessment Terrorism Netherlands. The chance of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands is real, so the threat level remains at 4 (substantial).

Acting National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security Wieke Vink: “Since 2020, terrorist attacks in Europe have been almost exclusively carried out by perpetrators acting alone. We see perpetrators with a newly created personal worldview. This is often a mix of religious and political beliefs, conspiracy theories, and hatred combined with personal circumstances. Attackers may also act out of a pure fascination with violence.”

Centralized terrorist organizations still pose a major threat to security in Europe. At the same time, radicalization increasingly occurs on social media, gaming platforms, and chat groups not directly controlled by these organizations. Through the use of fluid online networks, (supporters of) terrorist organizations spread propaganda, knowledge, and ideas to encourage individuals to use terrorist violence. The impact of an attack by a lone actor – such as a stabbing or ramming into people with a car – is smaller, but the chance of such an attack being successfully carried out is greater.

Jihadism

The threat of jihadist attacks in Europe and the Netherlands remains present. The threat seems to temporarily decrease because international terrorist organizations like ISIS and Al Qa’ida are currently likely less able to carry out attacks in Europe due to ongoing counterterrorism operations worldwide. However, ISIS has the ability to quickly rebuild its attack capabilities when military operations against ISIS decrease. It is important to note that ISIS has gained strength in Syria in recent months. In 2025, several jihadist terrorism convicts with a higher threat profile were released from detention in the Netherlands. These released terrorism convicts have, as far as visible, not yet committed acts indicating an intention to carry out a terrorist attack. It cannot be ruled out that these individuals may resort to jihadist-motivated violence. New releases from 2027 onwards may increase the terrorist threat.

Right-wing extremism

The threat from right-wing extremism is still present. Several arrests have been made within the right-wing extremist milieu, but there are no indications that the willingness to use violence has increased. Most right-wing extremists see openly calling for violence as counterproductive. Instead, there is an increasingly successful focus on normalizing right-wing extremist ideas and activities. This normalization causes fear, hatred, and racism in society and undermines social cohesion. In some cases, it can even lead to violent incidents.

The full Threat Assessment Terrorism Netherlands December 2025 can be found here.