Dutch People Unjustly Overconfident: 9 out of 10 Do Not Always Recognize Online Fraud

This is evident from new research by Verian, commissioned by the Dutch government. 9 out of 10 Dutch people do not always recognize online fraud. 4 out of 10 (42%) overestimate themselves: they believe they can better distinguish fake from real than they actually can. The government warns with the ‘Don’t Get Fooled’ campaign that technological developments, such as artificial intelligence, make online fraud increasingly harder to detect. Nearly 1 in 3 Dutch people (32%) worry about being scammed online.

• 9 out of 10 Dutch people do not always recognize online fraud: only 6% consistently distinguish online deception.
• Yet 50% of Dutch people say they are good or very good at recognizing online fraud.
• 42% overestimate their ability to distinguish real from fake.
• 73% say technological developments will make it harder for them to recognize fraud.
• Dutch people under 34 rate all forms of online fraud as more trustworthy than those aged 55+.
• Dutch people under 34 are more likely to click on scam links than those aged 55+.
• Among all age groups, Dutch people under 34 most often say they are (very) good at recognizing online fraud.

Scammers work cleverly. With new technologies, previously leaked personal data can be easily misused for large-scale, hyper-personalized deceptive messages. These messages increasingly lack the usual signs of online fraud, such as obvious language mistakes or suspicious-looking links.

“Online fraud is becoming harder to recognize. Because the difference between real and almost real is so small, and many people overestimate themselves, we are at greater risk than we often think. And that is why it can happen to anyone,” says Foort van Oosten, Minister of Justice and Security.

Half of the Dutch population (50%) says they are good or very good at recognizing online fraud. However, research shows that Dutch people greatly overestimate themselves: in practice, only 6% of all online fraud attempts are consistently recognized as such. More than 4 out of 10 (42%) overestimate their ability to distinguish fake from real. This underscores that even those who do not expect it can be scammed online. Dutch people under 34 appear more susceptible to online deception. They say more often than other age groups that they recognize online fraud well, but still click more quickly on scam links. They also rate fake messages as more trustworthy than those aged 55+.

Participants in the research were shown an email, SMS, WhatsApp message, website, and social reel similar to what they might encounter in daily life. Examples include an email from an online sales platform, an SMS from a postal company, a video on social media from a well-known Dutch person, or a webshop.

Half of the participants saw the real variants, the other half saw variants with added social engineering signals. These fake messages were developed in collaboration with ethical hacker Yusuf Onay from the DIVD (Dutch Institute for Vulnerability Disclosure) to ensure the validity of the research results.

One of the most notable examples was a deepfake video, developed in collaboration with illusionist Victor Mids. The control group saw a real social reel of the famous illusionist, the experimental group saw the deceptive variant of this video, where an AI-generated fake message was added. Half of the participants did not realize it was a fake message.

3 out of 4 Dutch people expect technological developments to make it increasingly difficult to recognize online fraud.

Illusionist Victor Mids, who was deepfaked for the research: “As an illusionist, I basically play the same game often seen in online fraud: something is presented as ‘real,’ which misleads you. Your brain makes a wrong assumption somewhere in your decision-making, and before you know it, you have clicked on a wrong link. I found it astonishing to see that half of all participants did not realize that a deepfake of me had been made.”

Yoanne Spoormans, Cybercrime specialist at the police, explains: “Abuse of new technology makes online fraud more credible. But there are always signs you can recognize that something is wrong. Online scammers try to convince you to act quickly, for example to avert an emergency or because a product is almost sold out. Due to this time pressure, you can no longer think critically. So, must you act quickly? Be alert and take a step back. Take time to check the facts and the sender. Preferably ask advice from someone you trust. If it doesn’t feel right or you have doubts, click away. And if you are scammed anyway? Always report it to the police. This can often be done online. Reporting helps stop the perpetrators and prevents it from happening to others.”

The multi-year campaign by the Dutch government urges people to always take 3 seconds before clicking. The goal is to help Dutch people recognize online deception and thus prevent fraud. Online criminals are getting smarter. They pressure you with time constraints, lure you with a great offer, or pretend to be someone you trust using new technologies to steal your data or money. More information on how to recognize this kind of online deception can be found at laatjenietinterneppen.nl.