Opinion by Frans Timmermans

It is as tempting as it is irresponsible to ignore the signs of the times when those signs are inconvenient. What do you do when you have looked at a chessboard since World War II where pieces were moved but the board remained intact? And suddenly the most important player smashes the board to pieces, sending the pieces flying around the room? In security-political terms, this is an existential question that European nations, including the Netherlands, are faced with.

The longer European nations continue to indulge in the illusion that the old order can be restored, the harder it becomes to secure their own interests.

So far, Europeans have been anxiously trying to pick up the pieces, glue the board back together, and keep the man with the hammer on their side with flattery, compliments, and costly concessions. But the longer European nations continue to indulge in the illusion that the old order can be restored, the harder it becomes to secure their own interests in the new order that is emerging. It is not surprising that a supposed statement by Antonio Gramsci from 1929 is often quoted today: “The old time is dying, the new is struggling to be born.”

Even then, democracies struggled to cope with the rapid rise of autocrats who dismantled the rule of law. How they silenced the press and all other institutions of civil society and greedily eyed their neighbors possessions – hoping to steal what was needed to prevent their own economic failure. It is evident that autocrats can only survive politically if they silence opponents, engage in fact-free politics, and keep their populations imprisoned in fear of those who are different. It is also evident that this ultimately leads to violence, if not domestically, then internationally.

You can give Trump compliments a thousand times, it will not change his autocratic impulses.

You can give Trump compliments a thousand times, it will not change his autocratic impulses. The painful truth is that Ukraine is struggling to survive under the aggression of Russia. That the genocidal violence and ethnic cleansing of Gaza by Netanyahu can continue unabated. That in the poorest parts of the world, access to life-saving medication has been withdrawn overnight because Trump allows or even promotes it. The United States is by far the most powerful nation, but is no longer as omnipotent as it was in the thirty years after the fall of the Wall. You would therefore expect that cherishing alliances would be a form of enlightened self-interest. But the fascination with autocrats, the temptation of power over justice, for status, for amassing great private wealth through public means, and the deep aversion to pluralistic, open societies is such a powerful, clouding cocktail that any sight of where national interests would be sustainably served is lost.

Thanks to the incredible courage and perseverance of the Ukrainians, nothing is definitively lost yet and we have the chance to help turn the aggression around.

This is now our world. What is our answer to that? It is easy to point only at Trump and not to face our own European failures. We have been too late and too timid in our response to the Russian conquest war against Ukraine. Thanks to the incredible courage and perseverance of the Ukrainians, nothing is definitively lost yet and we have the chance, a chance that we are fortunately seizing better and better, to help turn the aggression around. If we do not do that, greater European calamity from Russia is to be expected. Only by keeping the war machine running will Putin be able to permanently hold the Russians hostage and remain in power.

Our greatest handicap is our division. A division that too often makes us powerless and the plaything of Americans – and unfortunately also Chinese. A division that is born in the heart of our countries. Where too large a part of the population is deeply disappointed in the established order and feels too often abandoned. This makes the siren call of the extremes that promise heaven and have a scapegoat ready for everything that goes wrong increasingly attractive.

Exposing the extremes as political charlatans is only possible if the democratic rule of law delivers what it promises and democratic politicians do not promise more than they can deliver. Restoration of the welfare state and substantial investments in the economy of the future are essential measures for this. Step by step, the insight must grow that fleeing into nationalism and scapegoat politics weakens us and undermines our sovereignty.

The new geopolitical reality forces us to transcend division and come together for the international rule of law.

Europe is divided because many countries are deeply divided internally. The new geopolitical reality forces us to overcome that division and come together for the international rule of law. Because in a world where law is permanently defeated by power, Europe is both powerless and lawless. Overcoming internal and European division therefore goes hand in hand.

It is painful to see that the fate of Europe is being discussed by two men in Alaska who both have a reactionary vision of society. Who see autocracy as the ideal form of governance. Who perceive boundless self-enrichment as a secondary employment condition and share a deep aversion to the European Union. Our values and our way of life are repugnant to them. The leader of the most powerful country raises an international pariah, a war criminal moreover, to the highest stage of international politics. With fear and trembling, European leaders follow this spectacle and hope that Trumps boundless admiration for Putin does not lead to a sellout of Ukraine and thus of Europe.

Higher defense spending is necessary, but narrowing the entire discussion to that would be unwise.

It is still understandable that European leaders try to approach this issue as vaguely as possible, hoping that Trump does not smash all the European porcelain to pieces. But in the meantime, far too little is being done to engage European populations in the new geopolitical reality. Certainly, higher defense spending is necessary, and certainly, NATO has mapped out what capabilities will need to be built for that. But narrowing the entire discussion to that would be unwise. Making our societies more resilient and urgently investing in diplomacy – in relationships with the many often rapidly emerging countries in the south, east, and west of the world – is urgently necessary due to the American radical turnaround.