What happens per area if extreme rainfall occurs over 2 days in a large area? Just like in Limburg, Belgium and Germany in 2021. This question is central to a study conducted by all Dutch water boards commissioned by the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management.
Published on: 31 October 2025

What happens in Gelderland during extreme rainfall? Extreme rain showers are becoming more frequent, but we cannot prevent them. However, we can better prepare for them.

Gelderland Water Images

Gelderland has 3 water boards, each of which has created such a water image for their own region. For example, it appears that the consequences of such an extreme shower in the Achterhoek and on the Veluwe can be significant. Especially if it happens when the soil in the area is already wet and saturated, as was the case in Limburg. In the entire Oude IJssel river basin, significant damage can occur if the shower falls on soil that is already saturated and has a high groundwater level. If the rain falls on dry soil that can still absorb a lot of water, there is less chance of damage. In addition, differences in elevation greatly influence the extent of the inconvenience. At the edges of the Veluwe, at the bottom of slopes, a lot of water collects, which can cause damage. 

Discussing Risks

The water images help us recognize risks, such as:

  • Where bottlenecks arise when extreme precipitation falls in a large area and must be discharged via streams and rivers?
  • What is the effect on vital functions, such as hospitals or the accessibility of villages and cities? 
  • How large is the social impact if multiple regions are affected simultaneously?

Therefore, in the coming period, we will engage in risk dialogues. In these, we discuss per region with, among others, municipalities, water boards, safety regions, Rijkswaterstaat and utility companies (electricity, gas, drinking water, internet and telephony), what risks exist, how large they are and how we can address them to better prepare for such extreme weather situations. Also from good cooperation in crisis situations. The ultimate goal is to work together towards a climate-resilient Gelderland. Preparation is essential in this, because prevention is not always possible.

What Was Researched?

Using computer models, it has been mapped what happens if – just like in Limburg – no less than 200 millimeters of rain falls in 2 days in a specific area. This was carried out with different combinations of precipitation and groundwater levels. Because every shower is different, it is not exactly predictable what will happen. The maps provide a general picture of the vulnerability of an area, so that the region can prepare for an extreme shower that will fall sooner or later.

Curious About the Maps?

View the new maps