News report | 09-12-2025 | 16:00
Radicalization is increasingly an individual process. Carrying out an attack is also more than before an individual matter. This makes it more difficult to predict who, when, and why someone will commit an act of violence. This is stated in the Terrorism Threat Assessment Netherlands (DTN) by the National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV), which is based on information from, among others, the AIVD.
The chance of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands is real; therefore, the threat level remains at 4 (substantial).
Centralized terrorist organizations still pose a major threat to security in Europe. At the same time, radicalization increasingly takes place on social media, gaming platforms, and chat groups that are not directly controlled by these organizations. Through the use of fluid online networks, (supporters of) terrorist organizations spread propaganda, knowledge, and ideas to encourage individuals to use terrorist violence. The impact of an attack by a lone actor - for example, a stabbing or ramming people with a car - is smaller, but the chance that such an attack will be successfully carried out is greater.
Jihadism
The threat of jihadist attacks in Europe and the Netherlands remains present. The threat seems to temporarily decrease because international terrorist organizations such as ISIS and Al Qa’ida are currently probably less able to carry out attacks in Europe due to ongoing counterterrorism operations worldwide. However, ISIS has the ability to quickly rebuild its attack capabilities when military operations against ISIS decrease. In 2025, several jihadist terrorism convicts with a higher threat profile were released from detention in the Netherlands. These released terrorism convicts have, as far as visible, not yet committed acts indicating an intention to carry out a terrorist attack. It cannot be ruled out that these individuals may resort to jihadist-motivated violence. New releases from 2027 may increase the terrorist threat.
Right-wing extremism
The threat from right-wing extremism remains unchanged. Several arrests have been made within the right-wing extremist milieu, but there are no indications that the willingness to use violence has increased. Most right-wing extremists see openly calling for violence as counterproductive. Instead, there is an increasingly successful focus on normalizing right-wing extremist ideas and activities. This normalization causes fear, hatred, and racism in society and undermines social cohesion. In some cases, it can even lead to violent incidents.
Current threat level
The DTN is an analysis of national and international terrorist threats against the Netherlands and Dutch interests abroad. The NCTV compiles the DTN two to three times a year. The AIVD contributes substantive information to this threat assessment.
