At the beginning of 2025, the Netherlands counted 3.72 million young people and 3.76 million elderly. The latter group will increase more strongly: in 2070 there are expected to be 4.1 million young people and 5.4 million people aged 65 and over. Until 2031, the number of young people will first decrease slightly. Among the elderly, the number of people aged 80 and over will especially rise: from just over 0.9 million in 2025 to 2.1 million in 2070.
People of working age (20 to 65 years) now make up just under 59 percent of the population. That will drop to 55 percent around 2040. The number of inhabitants of these ages is expected to fluctuate around 10.6 million until 2040. After that, it gradually rises to 11.1 million in 2070.
Population growth is expected to be 95 thousand people in 2025. That is 6 thousand fewer than in 2024. From 2033, population growth will slow somewhat due to more deaths and less migration.
In recent years, population growth was mainly due to migration: more immigrants arrived than emigrants left. In the coming years, immigration is expected to decrease slightly. Emigration is increasing because some immigrants leave again after a few years. The migration balance (immigration minus emigration) has been well above 100 thousand in recent years but will decline in the coming years, from 88 thousand in 2026 to 70 thousand in 2030.
Until 2029, more people are expected to die than children are born. Between 2022 and 2025, around 166 thousand children were born annually. This number is expected to rise again in the coming years, to 198 thousand in 2038. This is because the number of women of childbearing age is increasing, and women over 30 are more likely to have children.
The number of deaths was around 172 thousand last year, this year, and next year. There are more elderly people, but people also live slightly longer. As a result, the number of deaths remains more or less the same. After 2026, it will gradually rise again. This causes the population to grow more slowly.
The population in 2070 is expected to be 20.6 million inhabitants, but there are uncertainties in the forecast figures. For example, the number of migrants can vary greatly from year to year. It is also uncertain whether life expectancy will continue to increase at the same rate, and whether the average number of children people have will remain the same. The population in 2070 is very likely to be between 17.5 million and 23.9 million inhabitants.
The CBS updates the population forecast every year, taking into account the latest developments and insights. Compared to the 2024 forecast, there are mainly short-term adjustments: higher mortality, lower immigration, and higher emigration. Due to these adjustments, the expected population in 2070 is now 70 thousand lower. This is a small adjustment compared to the uncertainty around the forecast figures.
More information about the forecast, figures, and background can be read in the article Core Forecast 2025–2070: 20.6 million inhabitants expected in 2070.
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