On the Road to Europe: Expected Migration to the Netherlands

A possible expansion of the European Union with Albania, Montenegro, and Serbia is expected to cause a limited increase in migration to the Netherlands.

A possible expansion of the European Union with Albania, Montenegro, and Serbia is expected to cause a limited increase in migration to the Netherlands. The numbers are relatively small compared to the annual migration balance and previous EU expansion rounds. It is estimated that after ten years there will be 36,000 additional migrants in the Netherlands. Most people come from Serbia, mainly due to the larger population size. The numbers are estimated based on previous accessions and are inherently uncertain.

Limited Expected Migration Increase

The CPB estimates that in the first ten years after accession, an average net of 3,600 additional migrants from the candidate member states will come to the Netherlands annually, with most coming from Serbia (about 70%) and the rest from Montenegro and Albania. The inflow is generally highest in the first years after accession and then gradually decreases. For comparison: in 2023, the migration balance was approximately 135,000 people. In previous expansions, mainly young labor and family migrants came to the Netherlands, and the number of migrants in sectors such as construction increased slightly; this may be similar in future expansions.

Migration Changes Are Difficult to Estimate

Predicting migration changes is inherently uncertain. The circumstances in future expansion rounds may differ in many respects from previous rounds. Various factors, such as demographics, migration networks, and economic developments, can influence the outcomes. Policy choices at home and abroad also play a role. Additionally, migrants who stay briefly or are in transit are not included in this analysis. There is more reason to expect that migration to the Netherlands will be lower rather than higher. Many candidate member states have already seen many people leave, populations are aging, and the distance to the Netherlands is greater than with previous new EU countries.