Cumulus Clouds Above Vulnerable People

Recently, I read the childrens book “Under the Same Sky” to my two daughters. A charming picture book celebrating human connection: despite our differences, we all share the same world. There is certainly some truth to this, but when it comes to existential security, it seems we do not all live under the same sky. One enjoys a comfortable climate with a gentle breeze, a shining sun, and a clear blue sky, while for another, the sky has been dark for months and a storm can break at any moment. 

Low Pressure Area

The CPB is not the KNMI, but on the economic front we also make a kind of weather forecast. For example, our research shows that the chance of rain, such as becoming unemployed and dependent on benefits, varies significantly per person. Additionally, someone with a high chance of showers may also face strong gusts of wind or hail. People with a high risk of benefit dependency also face greater risks of other setbacks, such as illness or debt problems – in other words, out of the frying pan into the fire.

The duration of showers also differs per person, as a second CPB study shows. For some, the sky clears quickly, while others are caught in a rainy season that seems endless. We also now know that the greater the chance of rain, the greater the chance it will continue to pour for a long time. In other words, those vulnerable to losing their jobs also have a greater chance of being sidelined for a long time.

New CPB research reveals another dimension on which cumulus clouds form. Cloud cover is not randomly distributed over the population but clusters above certain social networks. Those with a high risk of job loss often have a social circle of people with similarly increased risk. It seems some groups live together under a low-pressure area. This is especially true for flexible workers. They themselves have a more insecure labor market position but also more often have family members, neighbors, and colleagues with similar contracts.

Protection That Does Not Always Keep Dry

The government offers an umbrella in the form of benefits and other support methods. This umbrella seems to provide solid protection in many cases, as CPB researchers have shown. People also build their own protection to absorb shocks in the form of financial buffers, ranging from a maritime raincoat to a thin festival poncho. And it is precisely those with the greatest risk of job loss who on average have the thinnest raincoats hanging on the coat rack.

Those facing rough weather may also seek shelter with friends and family. However, those who most need shelter often know people whose roofs also leak more often. People with high labor market risks are more often connected to persons with low income and assets. This difference is significant. For example, we see that the parents of people with the highest risk of job loss have about three times less wealth than the parents of persons with the lowest risk.

Sun Behind the Clouds

A visit by the CPB youth association to the Poverty Fund opened my eyes to how the holes in the umbrella and leaking roofs are patched, sometimes provisionally. The Poverty Fund supports more than a thousand local poverty aid organizations, such as food banks. It was impressive to see how volunteers daily commit themselves to supporting families in their village or city. Their efforts bring not only practical help but also strengthen social bonds in the local community. Under the gloomy skies hanging over vulnerable families, these volunteers are the sunbeams that briefly clear the sky.

Although the analogy between existential security and the weather works quite well, it fails on one point: you cannot influence the weather in the short term, but you can influence existential security. And although not everyone has the same weather forecast, the good news is that this weather is surprisingly predictable. Knowledge of this makes it possible to take targeted measures, such as preventive unemployment policies or reintegration assistance, to let the sun shine more often.