19 February 2026
An expansion of the European high-voltage grid is beneficial for the Netherlands: it saves space without higher electricity prices. At the same time, it makes the Netherlands more dependent on other European countries, especially Norway. The costs and benefits of grid expansion are unevenly distributed: in Norway, it costs space and electricity prices increase significantly. This calls for international cooperation. This is evident from research by the Central Planning Bureau (CPB), which compared two future scenarios for 2050: a Europe with and without additional international grid connections. The CPB examined how these scenarios affect the physical space needed for electricity production and electricity prices, focusing on the Netherlands.
Less spatial pressure in the Netherlands
In a scenario with a smaller European network, the Netherlands needs an average of four large power plants per province, or the equivalent in wind turbines, plus enough solar panels to cover the province of Utrecht. The exact composition depends on political choices. In a scenario with a larger European network, the Netherlands imports more electricity from countries with abundant hydropower, wind, and solar energy, such as Norway and Spain. As a result, the Netherlands builds on average one fewer large power plant per province and requires one-third less area for solar panels compared to the small network scenario. No further European grid expansion after 2030 affects land use and social support in the Netherlands. If electricity demand in 2050 is lower due to, for example, the departure of energy-intensive industry, the spatial challenge is smaller.
More dependence and higher prices elsewhere
A larger European network increases dependence between countries, with costs and benefits unevenly distributed. While the Netherlands needs less physical space for electricity production thanks to additional import options, the average electricity price in Norway rises by about 19%, and land use increases there due to the export of hydropower and wind energy to other European countries. This can make further grid expansion unattractive, especially for Norway.
European cooperation as a prerequisite
The research emphasizes that due to the uneven costs and benefits, further grid expansion is not self-evident and requires European cooperation. For the Netherlands, this means that energy policy requires an explicit trade-off between more domestic generation or more reliance on electricity imports. More imports can relieve the spatial and social pressure of nuclear power plants and wind turbines but increase dependence on investment decisions in other countries. The choice between more autonomy and connectedness can only be made at the European level.
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