It could have gone like this. But it did not. These sentences start the nine weather extremes that the KNMI publishes in An Extreme Report. Weather extremes that can have a major impact on society. Wildfires and the deployment of firefighters, severe cold and the consequences for gas demand, or darkness and the impact on electricity supply.
Climate change is happening here and now, and we especially notice it through extreme weather
Ten years after the signing of the Paris Climate Agreement, attention to the consequences of climate change remains important. Climate change is happening here and now, and we especially notice it through extreme weather. In An Extreme Report, we follow extreme storylines. Together with our partners, we look at the impact of dangerous weather.
Weather extremes already quite different than before
As a society, we want to be resilient against plausible weather extremes. But in times of rapid climate change, like now, the past is no longer a reliable gauge for what we can expect. We often compare the current weather with a reference period from the past; that is currently 1991-2020. But the Dutch climate has since warmed by almost one degree. That means weather extremes – which often increase more than the average – are already quite different than before. What was almost impossible before (40 degrees in the Netherlands, for example) is something we now have to take into account.
Overburdened, damaged and under pressure
These weather extremes pose a challenge to society
And these weather extremes pose a challenge to society. The availability of water or energy can come under pressure; emergency services can be overburdened; infrastructure and buildings can be damaged; various economic sectors can be affected; more people may die.
We must therefore continuously adapt to the changing climate, even now. Simply because the climate has already changed so much. This is separate from the fact that we also need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Both reducing and adapting to climate change are necessary to keep the consequences manageable.
Interaction of weather extremes and impact
We link the meteorological situation to the impact on a particular sector or area
In this report, we look at how various weather extremes can already lead to disruptive societal consequences. We do this through various case studies, where we link a description of the meteorological situation to the potential impact on a particular sector or area.
To shape this well, we have collaborated with various KNMI partners, such as the Netherlands Institute for Public Safety (NIPV), safety regions, and TenneT. This way, we paint a picture of the interplay between weather extremes and impact, which the Netherlands may face and must be prepared for.
The different cases are not exhaustive but mainly illustrative. There are many other possibilities of weather extremes, each playing out slightly differently, for example in terms of location, duration, intensity, and interplay of factors.
Topics
The following combinations of weather extremes and impact are discussed in this report:
- Heat, and its impact in an urban environment
- Wildfire, and its impact on firefighting efforts
- Cold, and its impact on gas demand
- Storm, and the damage to houses and buildings
- Hurricane in Caribbean Netherlands, and the damage to houses and buildings
- Drought, and its impact on inland shipping
- Precipitation, and its impact in the region
- Darkness, and its impact on electricity supply
- Mosquitoes, and the impact on West Nile virus
