According to a new study by researchers from the United Kingdom, the Gulf Stream will not completely collapse under climate change. However, this does not mean that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), of which the Gulf Stream is a part, will remain stable. A significantly weakened AMOC is generally considered a collapse, as there will always be a weak, wind-driven current remaining.

What is the Gulf Stream? 

The Gulf Stream is a part of the complex circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, the AMOC (Figure 1). The AMOC transports large amounts of warm water towards Northwestern Europe, including the Netherlands. The Netherlands owes its typical mild maritime climate to the AMOC. It is expected that the AMOC will weaken under future climate change. In a previous climate report, we discussed the AMOC in detail. 

A tipping point in the Atlantic Ocean 

In addition to the expected slowdown, the AMOC also has a tipping point. This means that the AMOC can abruptly collapse as a result of climate change. A critical threshold is then crossed, the tipping point. Once the AMOC begins to collapse, this process cannot be stopped. Research from Utrecht University showed this last year in an advanced climate simulation. In this simulation, only the salt content in the Atlantic Ocean was slowly changed; the effects of climate change were not included. Under these conditions, the AMOC completely collapsed in the climate model, with global consequences.