What will the climate of Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten look like in 2050 and 2100? This is described in the new climate scenarios for Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. This information helps the countries prepare for the impacts of climate change. The climate scenarios will be presented on December 9 by the International Panel on Deltas and Coastal Areas (IPDC) and were developed through a unique collaboration between the meteorological institutes of Aruba, Curaçao, Sint Maarten, and the Netherlands.
Because future global emissions are uncertain, the scenarios are based on different assumptions for emissions (low, medium, high) and regional rainfall (drier or wetter). The scenarios do not provide probabilities but help decision-makers and policymakers to see possible risks and plan ahead.
Temperatures continue to rise
Even in the low emission scenario, the average temperature rises by 0.7 degrees by the end of this century
The new scenarios show that temperatures on the islands will continue to rise. With high emissions, the average annual temperature in 2050 can increase by about 1.3 degrees, rising to about 3.3 degrees in 2100. In that case, the traditionally coolest months (December to February) will even be warmer than the warmest month in the current climate. Even in the low emission scenario, the average temperature rises by 0.7 degrees by the end of this century. The difference between the two clearly shows that global greenhouse gas emissions have a huge impact on the climate by the end of this century.
Rainfall and drought
The scenarios also show that there may be less rainfall. In the most extreme scenarios, average rainfall could decrease by half by the end of the century compared to now. In more favorable scenarios, drought remains limited, and for Sint Maarten, some outcomes even show a slight increase in rainfall.
Rising sea levels
In the long term, after 2100, sea levels could rise by more than 1 meter, even if greenhouse gas emissions no longer increase. Around 2050, the scenarios are still close to each other, but by 2100, the differences vary greatly from 48 centimeters in the low emission scenario to 82 centimeters in the high emission scenario.
Unique collaboration
The climate scenarios will soon be handed over to local governments in Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten
The climate scenarios will soon be handed over and explained during workshops for local governments in Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. We also organize training for meteorological services so they can communicate the scenarios and create updates themselves. In addition, historical meteorological data are being digitized to make weather information more accessible for future climate research.
The scenarios were developed by the IPDC in collaboration with KNMI, Departamento Meteorologico Aruba (DMA), Meteorological Department Curaçao (MDC), Meteorological Department St. Maarten (MDS), and the governments of Aruba, Curaçao, and Sint Maarten. The IPDC is an initiative funded by the Dutch government. The scenarios are part of the most recent IPDC project in the Caribbean part of the Kingdom, focused on climate scenarios and digitization of meteorological data.