The autumn holiday is almost here. The southern Netherlands can head out next week to enjoy the autumn colors, while the central and northern regions will do so a week later. Where you find the best autumn weather during a holiday in your own country depends on the weather forecast and your own preferences. Based on KNMI measurements in the past, we can already make an estimate. For example, Vlissingen stands out with the highest temperatures, and Maastricht tends to stay the driest on average.
What is average?
What is typical weather during the autumn holiday? That question is not easy to answer, as what we see as normal shifts due to climate change. The average climate at this moment cannot be easily calculated due to ongoing warming. Instead, we usually look at the long-term average over the period 1991-2020. We then look within this period at the measurements from the last 20 days (two decades) of October, as the autumn holiday usually falls within this period.
The warmest at the coast
From the measurements, we can gather a lot of information about the average weather during the autumn holiday at various locations. For the highest temperatures, it is best to go on holiday to the vicinity of Vlissingen. The automatic weather station in this Zeeland city recorded the highest average temperatures during the last two decades of October between 1991 and 2020: an average of 11.8°C (image 1). Last year, Vlissingen again came out as the winner, with an average of no less than 13.3°C over the same period.
Even at night, temperatures in Vlissingen remain the highest in the Netherlands during the autumn holiday, with an average minimum temperature of 9.5°C. Other coastal areas also score high with minimum temperatures: Hoek van Holland and De Kooy (near Den Helder) rank second and third on the list.
The fact that weather stations at the coast measure the highest temperatures in the fall has to do with the sea. The temperature of seawater responds slowly to changes in air temperature. The seawater temperature is therefore highest at the end of summer and slowly releases this warmth in the fall. This generally results in higher temperatures at sea than inland. Note that coastal stations are also the places where the most wind is measured during the last 20 days of October.
The driest in the southeast
If you care less about the temperature but want to stay dry, its best to head inland. It rains the least on average during the autumn holiday. With Maastricht, Eindhoven, Volkel, and Arcen in the top 5, North Brabant and Limburg are particularly good holiday destinations for lovers of dry weather. North Holland and South Holland are precisely the provinces where the most precipitation falls during this period.
Here too, the sea plays a key role. Because seawater is warmer on many days in the fall than the temperature above land, showers develop more easily over seawater. The showers then gradually dissipate as they move further inland. This creates a difference in precipitation between coastal areas and the inland that is typical for the fall (image 2). During the autumn months, there is up to 40% more precipitation along the coast than the national average.
