This week it snows frequently. Again today. When I strolled on cross-country skis through my neighborhood transformed into a white wonderland after the snow showers on Monday morning, I couldnt help but wonder how thick the snow layer would have been without climate change. And what would remain in an even warmer climate. How much less snow would fall then? At KNMI, we have developed a method to study these questions. With this, we look at how todays weather would look in a different climate. We call this approach Future weather.
Todays weather in the future (Future weather)
Our weather forecasts are based on weather models. These are complex computer codes that can calculate how the weather will develop in the coming days by applying the laws of nature. With the Future weather method, we calculate the weather situation of each day not only for the current climate but also for a warmer (globally 1.5 and 3 degrees warmer than now) and colder climate (1.5 degrees colder than now). This gives us insight into the influence of climate change on everyday weather. We have already written several reports about this, and here we show the results for the snowy weather of the past days.
Snowfall strongly decreases due to climate change
The animation below shows the weather development according to our Future weather system in the period from January 1 to 7. Left for the colder climate, the current climate in the middle, and the warmer climate on the right. The contour lines indicate sea-level air pressure. The low-pressure area north of the Netherlands repeatedly brings snow showers from the northwest (gray-green shades) that gradually cover the country with an increasingly thick layer of snow (blue-purple shades).
On Tuesday morning, January 6, 2026, our Future weather system shows an average snow cover thickness in the Netherlands of over 5 centimeters and locally more than 16 centimeters in the current climate. The measured snow cover on January 6 is shown in figure 1. Both in thickness and distribution across the country, the model corresponds well with observations. In the colder climate, the model shows much more snow (about 9 centimeters on average with peaks up to 22 centimeters). In the 1.5-degree warmer climate, only about 1.5 centimeters remain on average, with a maximum of about 8 centimeters in some places. At 3 degrees warming, snowfall decreases even further (not shown). So, there is still some snow in the warmer climate, but much less. The total amount of precipitation is certainly not less in the warmer climate. Much of the precipitation falls as rain or wet snow that melts almost immediately. In other words, it is simply too warm.
Less often cold enough and drier air
Snow in the Netherlands is becoming increasingly rare. There are two reasons for this. The main reason is the simplest: for snow, the temperature must not rise too far above zero, and due to warming, temperatures below zero occur less often (figure 2). Around 1965, we measured an average of 67 frost days in De Bilt; nowadays, only 40. Days with severe frost are rapidly decreasing at a fast pace. The effect of warming is clearly visible in the animation: in the warmer climate, a smaller portion of the precipitation brought by the low-pressure system falls as snow. For the future, KNMI climate scenarios expect a further decrease in the number of frost days. In the warmest scenario, the average number of frost days in De Bilt drops to 30 around 2050 and only 11 around 2100 (see the KNMI climate dashboard).
The second reason is that when it is cold enough for snowfall in the future, usually less snow will fall. Heres why. In the current climate, cold air inflow from the northwest, like this week, still causes temperatures below zero and heavy snowfall. With further warming, the sea warms the air so much that precipitation mostly falls as rain. Temperatures below zero will mainly occur in the future with cold air inflow over land from the (north) east. This air is drier and usually comes with less precipitation.
Soft and fluffy
I am a winter person. The best thing about moments when it snows is that it gradually becomes quiet around you, at least if it is not too windy. Snow falls like an owl flies. Soft and fluffy. Everyday sounds are muffled because the snow crystals trap air and thus act like sound dampers. Honestly, there is nothing more beautiful if you ask me. Well, except maybe the sound of skaters on natural ice. That tjoeinke, tjoeinke, tjoeinke you hear from afar is timeless. But the ice that is there now is largely covered by a white layer. The skater may be disappointed, but the snow enthusiast cheers. For a moment, they can enjoy a fairytale landscape.