More CO2 in the air causes more warming. Despite the dangers of climate change being known for decades, the annual CO2 emissions from fossil fuels worldwide continue to rise. As a result, CO2 is increasing faster and faster. This is evident from the latest report of the Global Carbon Project, an international collaboration of scientists who collect and analyze data on greenhouse gas emissions.
How much CO2 do different countries emit?
According to the Global Carbon Budget 2025, global CO2 emissions will increase by about 1 percent (figure 1). By far the largest emitter is China, even when correcting for the production of goods made for other countries (dashed lines in figure 1). Among the large countries (blocks), the United States leads in per capita emissions, followed by China. The average European emits slightly more than the average world citizen, the average American three times as much. Poor countries often fall far below the global average. Coal contributes the most to emissions, followed by oil and gas.
Increasing emissions cause faster CO2 rise
The increase in emissions goes together with an ever faster increase of CO2 in the air (figure 2). Since 1960, the amount of CO2 in the air measured in Hawaii has increased from 317 ppm to 427 ppm now, an increase of no less than 35 percent (1 ppm is 1 molecule CO2 per 1 million molecules of air). The increase was on average 0.9 ppm per year in the 1960s. It has now risen to an average of 2.5 ppm per year in the last 10 years. In 2023 and 2024, we even saw values well above 3 ppm per year, more than three times as fast as in the 1960s.
Nature absorbs less CO2 due to climate change
Nature tempers the CO2 increase by removing half of the CO2 emitted by humans from the air; 21 percent through land absorption and 29 percent through ocean absorption. The other half accumulates in the atmosphere. But new analyses show that nature absorbs less CO2 due to climate change. This reduced CO2 absorption has caused an additional CO2 increase of eight ppm since 1960 (figure 3).
Stop quickly with fossil fuels and deforestation
Climate change is unfolding before our eyes. Global warming is accompanied by more frequent extreme rainfall, heatwaves, and periods of drought. To combat climate change, greenhouse gas emissions must be rapidly reduced. This means quickly phasing out fossil fuels and stopping deforestation to reduce CO2 emissions. Additionally, large-scale livestock farming and waste mountains must be contained, and sustainable rice cultivation adopted to reduce emissions of the greenhouse gas methane as well. A break with the past is needed to keep warming within limits. Under current climate policy, warming will reach around three degrees by 2100, 1.7 degrees more than now.
