On Friday morning, remnants of ex-hurricane Humberto will reach the west coast of Ireland. European weather services have now named this storm Amy, the first storm of the new season. Amy will turn north but will still bring strong winds and heavy rain to our country on Saturday. Imelda follows in Humbertos wake, and remnants of Imelda are likely to reach Ireland next week. As the Earth continues to warm, climate models show that remnants of tropical hurricanes are more frequently reaching Europe in September and October, at the end of the tropical hurricane season when the North Atlantic Ocean is at its warmest. This increases the chance of hurricane-force winds.
Humberto
Hurricane Humberto formed on September 26 in the western part of the tropical Atlantic Ocean from a disturbance originating from the west coast of Africa (see image 1). Humberto grew into a category 5 hurricane within one day. It passed southwest of Bermuda and then set course for Western Europe. Due to less favorable conditions such as colder seawater, Humberto weakened until it was no longer detectable as a hurricane on October 1.
Humberto Meets Imelda
Imelda formed as a tropical storm north of Cuba and grew into a hurricane within two days. It moved northward and found itself in the wake of Humberto. The animation in image 2 shows how the two are expected to further develop from yesterday. The wind field (color) clearly shows that the two hurricanes feel and influence each other. Humberto is quickly carried along by the strong westerlies towards Europe. After initially weakening slightly, the storm visibly regains strength. On Friday morning, this storm, named Amy by European weather services, will arrive in Ireland where warnings are in effect for strong wind gusts. The expectation is that we will face strong wind gusts and heavy rain on Saturday.
The further in time, the more uncertain the forecast. Experience shows that this certainly applies in a situation like now with tropical cyclones being carried along by the westerlies.
Imelda is expected not to be carried as far as Humberto and will gradually dissipate in the high-pressure area south of the strong westerlies. However, much moist air from Imelda will be carried along by the westerlies towards the United Kingdom and will bring a lot of rain next week.
