Stronger environmental policies can make the world healthier and more prosperous. This is a key conclusion from the 7th Global Environmental Outlook, a comprehensive overview of the state of the global environment. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) contributed to the analysis of two transformation scenarios in this flagship publication of the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). The world still faces deepening crises of climate change, biodiversity loss, land degradation, and pollution. Many international targets for these interconnected issues are not being met, causing serious social and economic harm. Although time is running short, achieving the goals is still possible.
Two Transformation Scenarios Towards a Prosperous and Healthy World
The report compares the implications of a scenario with limited environmental policy to two transformation scenarios to achieve international environmental goals. A behavioral scenario is driven by changes in societal values and norms and a strong reduction in unsustainable consumption. A technology scenario is driven by efficiency improvements and sustainable innovation. Both scenarios benefit people and the planet but require unprecedented action. They demand substantial investments in the coming decades, which around 2050 turn into net economic gains, potentially growing to tens of trillions of dollars per year in the second half of the century. In the transition scenarios, a total of nine million premature deaths are prevented by 2050, partly due to less air pollution, and 100 million people are lifted out of extreme poverty. The benefits of the transformation scenarios clearly outweigh the costs.
Warmest Decade Ever Recorded
The 10 warmest years worldwide since measurements began were all in the past decade. The average global temperature has risen by more than 1.3°C since the industrial era. The last two years (2023 and 2024) were the warmest ever recorded, with 2024 reaching a global average temperature of 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels. If current policies continue, the global average temperature will exceed 1.5 degrees warming around 2030 and reach about three degrees warming by the end of the century.
Fertile Land the Size of Colombia Lost Every Year
One million of the eight million species on the planet are threatened with extinction. Between 20 and 40 percent of the worlds land surface is in poor condition. Each year, an area the size of Colombia or Ethiopia of fertile soil is lost. This loss of fertile soil affects more than three billion people.
Synergy Between Systems
There are important synergies between environmental measures. Replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy reduces both climate change and air pollution. Both efficiency improvements and lifestyle changes reduce demand for energy, land, and materials, thereby easing pressure on the environment. Dietary changes and reduced food waste free up much agricultural land, allowing that land to sequester more carbon and ecosystems to have more space. Through smart combinations of solutions, it is possible to combat climate change more efficiently, protect biodiversity and land, and reduce pollution.
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Sustainable Development
Sustainable development meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.
