Climate change causes more tropical days, warm nights in summer, and fewer frost days in winter. In the Netherlands, the risk of death increases during heat. The city of Amsterdam wants to understand what this means for its residents. Therefore, the RIVM investigated whether there was an increased risk of death in Amsterdam between 2007 and 2019 at high and low temperatures. It appears that elderly people, residents of neighborhoods with low socioeconomic status, and neighborhoods with little greenery have a higher risk of dying from heat. Looking ahead, the RIVM estimates that the number of heat-related deaths in Amsterdam will rise.

Expected increase in number of deaths due to heat

The RIVM estimates that in Amsterdam, the number of deaths per year due to heat will rise from 110 to approximately 250 by 2050, depending on the climate scenario. There are no clear differences in risks at low temperatures among the different groups of residents. The RIVM bases this on scenarios from the KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute), the relationship between temperature and mortality, and the expected aging of Amsterdams population. The results of this study are largely comparable to other studies in the Netherlands.

Heat as a serious climate risk for health

Exposure to high temperatures is a serious climate risk for human health. Besides higher mortality risks, heat can also lead to illness or absenteeism in the labor market. It is important to research the relationship between high and low temperatures and health to estimate the impact of climate change on health.

The RIVM conducted this research on behalf of the city of Amsterdam.