20 January 2026
Additional investments in the European power grid towards 2050 can help protect businesses and households from high energy costs. New research from the Central Planning Bureau (CPB) shows that especially when nuclear energy becomes expensive or socially undesirable, a more extensive European network yields significant financial benefits. If nuclear energy proves cheap in 2050, further grid expansions are less beneficial.
Due to the energy transition, electricity use is rapidly increasing across Europe. At the same time, wind and solar energy are being rolled out on a large scale, but these sources are unevenly distributed across the continent: wind in the North Sea, sun in Southern Europe, and hydropower in Scandinavia. As a result, electricity must be transported over longer distances than before. This study compares three possible network variants for the European high-voltage grid towards 2050: a compact, an average, and a strongly expanded grid. These are additional expansions beyond those already planned until 2030. The Central Planning Bureau then calculated the costs and potential savings for each network variant in various future scenarios. This considered diverse developments in electricity demand and the costs of different generation and storage technologies.
Expansion Pays Off Especially if Nuclear Energy is Expensive or Undesirable
The study shows that especially the future costs of nuclear energy determine whether grid expansion is profitable. When nuclear energy proves expensive or socially undesirable, a larger network is financially most attractive. In these situations, countries can more easily utilize cheap electricity from other European regions, saving billions of euros annually. Even when local production disappears, countries can then rely on cheaper alternatives elsewhere in Europe.
Less Benefit When Nuclear Energy is Cheap
If nuclear energy becomes cheap and attractive in the future, additional investments in the European power grid after 2030 offer less benefit. In those scenarios, countries produce their electricity more domestically, reducing the need to transport large amounts of power. The expansion costs then do not outweigh the savings.
In addition to the English publication, an ESB article has also been published. This is also available for download on this page.
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