The chance of achieving the climate target for 2030 is very small
It is very unlikely that the Netherlands will meet the legal climate target of 55 percent emission reduction by 2030. With the current detailed policy as of January 1, 2025 (‘baseline scenario’), we are heading towards a reduction of 45 to 53 percent in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. Other calculable plans (‘supplementary policy’) add a small 2 percentage points: 47 to just under 55 percent reduction. This means the target falls outside the range. Therefore, the chance of achieving the target is less than 5 percent.
Strong structural policy is increasingly urgent
There are fewer and fewer options for policies that can achieve 55 percent emission reduction in 2030 without causing serious economic pain or provoking social resistance. There are also few concrete plans to achieve emission reductions after 2030. Therefore, it is crucial to take more robust measures that support a structural transition towards a climate-neutral Netherlands in the long term.
Delays make future challenges bigger and more expensive
It remains important to realize that the goal of 55 percent emission reduction in 2030 aligns with climate neutrality in 2050. If the target is not met in 2030, the challenge will only become greater afterward.
Specific policy needed for energy savings
It would be beneficial to focus more policy specifically on energy savings. This not only contributes to reducing emissions and dependency on imports but also leads to lower energy bills for households and businesses. Policies are often more focused on emission reduction than on energy savings. In the baseline scenario, the chance is very small (around 10 percent) that the European target for reducing final energy consumption will be met.
The annual Climate and Energy Outlook is prescribed by the Climate Act and serves as one of the accountability instruments for Dutch climate and energy policy.
