The chance of dying in the Netherlands on very hot days has decreased significantly since 2010. The estimated number of heat-related deaths fell from 7,000 in the period 2000-2009 to 4,300 in the period 2010-2019. This is shown by research from the RIVM. Since 2010, the National Heat Plan has contributed to raising awareness of the dangers of heat. According to researchers, this is one of the possible causes of this decline. However, the chance of dying on hot days is still elevated. Therefore, attention to this remains important.
The Netherlands has had a National Heat Plan since 2007, which was first activated in 2010. The RIVM investigated whether the National Heat Plan has had an effect on the relationship between high temperatures and mortality in the Netherlands. The institute compared the ten years since the activation of the National Heat Plan with the period before it. This research is part of the evaluation of the National Heat Plan.
Decrease in mortality due to heat
The chance of dying on very hot days has particularly decreased among the elderly, women, and residents of neighborhoods where many people with lower incomes live. Among people over 90 years old, the chance of dying from heat has decreased, but the estimated number of deaths in both periods remained the same. This is because there are more people of this age due to aging.
Attention to heat remains necessary
June 25, 2019, was the hottest day ever in the Netherlands: in several places in the Netherlands, it was warmer than 40 degrees. Research shows that the number of deaths the day after was higher than ever on a summer day. Europe is warming the fastest worldwide. The KNMI Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) expects more days of extreme heat in the future. There are also more people aged 90 and older due to aging. Measures to reduce health problems due to heat remain necessary.
National Heat Plan may contribute to awareness
The decrease in the chance of dying on very hot days has various causes according to the RIVM. It is difficult to distinguish these from one another. For example, the heatwaves of 2003 and 2006 may have made people more aware of the consequences of heat. There is also a lot of national (media) attention when the RIVM activates the National Heat Plan. The RIVM informs (health) professionals and caregivers about what they can do for people who are particularly vulnerable to heat, such as the elderly and young children.
Evaluation of the National Heat Plan – 4 studies
The RIVM evaluates the National Heat Plan at the request of the Ministry of VWS Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport (Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport). This evaluation consists of four studies. In addition to this research on the effect of the National Heat Plan on mortality rates, the RIVM also investigated whether the Netherlands is sufficiently prepared for a period of extreme heat (code red). This qualitative analysis showed that the Netherlands is on the right track, but there are also points of attention. For example, it is difficult to determine when extreme heat disrupts society (code red).
The RIVM also tested the new core message of the National Heat Plan: ‘Take care of each other in heat’. About half of the Dutch people indicate that this message motivates them to pay extra attention to vulnerable people in their environment during heat. Whether people actually adjust their behavior is being investigated in the last part of this evaluation. The results of this behavioral research will be known by the end of 2025.