Are the EU and its Member States set to meet the EUs binding energy and climate targets for 2030?

The Commissions assessment of the final National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) shows that Member States have made significant improvements in their draft plans. Thanks to the Commissions recommendations, ambition has been increased. The EU is nearing the achievement of the net greenhouse gas emission reduction target of -55% for 2030 compared to 1990, as stipulated in the European Climate Law. According to Member States projections, net emissions will decrease by around 54% by 2030, provided current and planned measures are implemented.

However, ambition gaps remain, especially in sectors covered by the Effort Sharing Regulation, such as transport and buildings. These sectors are expected to reduce their emissions by about 38% by 2030, compared to 2005. Five of the 23 assessed plans show a gap towards their national targets, requiring more action.

In the area of land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF), a gap of 45-60 MtCO₂eq remains, despite efforts by Member States. This corresponds to 100-140% of the 2030 goal of 42 Mt CO₂eq net removals. Nine Member States now expect to meet their LULUCF targets. Several tools are available to address this gap, including funds from the Common Agricultural Policy.

Member States have largely aligned their renewable energy goals with the EUs target of 42.5% by 2030. With only a 1.5% ambition gap, the EU has the potential to exceed the target if Member States realize their ambition.

Regarding energy efficiency, the plans show progress with an overall 8.1% reduction in final consumption, but a gap of 31.1 Mtoe remains. This calls for more action to meet the EU target of 11.7%.

What are other key elements of the EU-wide NECPs assessment?

The assessment comes at a time when the EU is focused on a strong, sustainable, and secure economy that works for people and businesses. It covers all dimensions of the Energy Union, such as decarbonization, energy efficiency, and energy security, as well as research and innovation.

The assessment shows significant progress towards the 2030 climate and energy goals. This demonstrates the value of the iterative and cooperative process between the Commission and the EU Member States.

The final NECPs show strengthened energy security through reduced gas dependency and diversification of energy sources. This shift requires specific plans and significant infrastructure upgrades.

Regarding the internal energy market, there are large discrepancies between Member States. Additional measures are needed to enhance cross-border interconnections and remove market barriers.

Industrial competitiveness and innovation receive more focus in the plans, although many plans lack specific targets. Investments in clean technologies and innovation are promoted.

There are improvements in investment estimates, but few plans provide a clear overview of fossil fuel subsidies or a timeline for phasing them out.

The need for a fair transition for all and energy poverty is addressed in the plans. However, concrete measures for the social climate plans are lacking.

Despite climate risks in Europe, adaptation to climate change is inconsistently addressed in the plans.

The Commission highlights key areas for emission reductions and energy savings through public and private funding.

Decarbonization of transport systems includes electrification of public transport and improvements in rail and cycling infrastructure.

Transitioning to renewable energy and clean infrastructure can create thousands of jobs and reduce our dependence on fossil fuels.

Are the EU and its Member States on track for climate neutrality by 2050 and meeting the Paris Agreement commitments?

In its 2024 Climate Action Progress Report, the Commission concluded that while GHG emissions are declining, implementation must intensify to achieve climate neutrality. Current projections show the EU is on track for the -55% target for 2030.

More work is needed to achieve the long-term goal of climate neutrality, but the EU has a solid policy foundation.

How are the final Plans ensuring the EUs competitiveness and investments for the transition?

The plans focus on enhancing EUs competitiveness and supply chain resilience. They include concrete measures to support clean technologies and improved investment estimates.

Many Member States outline national strategies for research and innovation, but often lack specific funding targets.

The Commission aims to enhance competitiveness through initiatives like the Clean Industrial Deal.

Do the final Plans provide sufficient support for citizens and consumers?

A fair and just transition is essential. Most Member States discuss the gradual phase-out of fossil fuels and the impact on employment and skills. Energy poverty is addressed with income support measures.

Few plans include input for the Social Climate Plans due by June 2025.

Are Member States investing enough in renewable and energy efficiency?

Member States show political will by raising their renewable energy ambitions. However, a 1.5% ambition gap remains.

Regarding energy efficiency, despite a decrease in energy consumption since 2021, significant gaps remain.

Are Member States sufficiently prioritizing adaptation to climate change?

Despite climate risks, climate resilience is unevenly addressed. Few plans have fully integrated adaptation measures.

Will the final updated NECPs lower energy prices?

The NECPs will help reduce energy costs by promoting clean energy and an integrated European energy market.

What is the Commission planning to do to ensure the 2030 targets are met?

Achieving the targets is a joint effort at the EU level. The Commission will strengthen cooperation with Member States and streamline processes.

In terms of renewable energy, the Commission will streamline legislation to promote investments.

For energy efficiency, the Commission is exploring the establishment of an EU-wide energy efficiency market.

The Commission works with Member States on Effort Sharing and LULUCF to close existing gaps.

It is important to acknowledge that these NECPs have only recently been finalized and implementation is in its early stages.

Are you still enforcing all missing Member States to deliver their pending NECPs?

Belgium, Estonia, and Poland have yet to submit their plans. The Commission urges swift submission.

The Commission is currently assessing Slovakias plan, submitted on 15 April 2025.

For More Information

Press release - EU on track for 2030 climate and energy targets according to national plans